Dutch semiconductor group ASML (ASML) could find its revenues in the firing line of a new U.S. bill aimed at restricting exports of computer chipmaking equipment.
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Protecting U.S. AI Lead
The draft MATCH bill introduced by a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House of Representatives this week is aimed at protecting the U.S. lead in artificial intelligence by stopping Chinese companies from getting their hands on crucial chip manufacturing tools. In short, it would severely limit China’s ability to create its own domestic AI supply chain.
The lawmakers said their focus was on restricting technologies where China relies on imports, such as immersion DUV lithography needed to create chip circuitry. The proposed law would prevent the sale or servicing of such equipment to leading Chinese chipmakers SMIC, Hua Hong, Huawei, CXMT and YMTC.
Although it appears that the main target is China, which is challenging U.S. leadership in AI, the restrictions would also impact U.S.-allied nations such as those in Europe. Indeed, according to NBC, the bill calls on the U.S. government to exercise “diplomatic engagement” to meet its goals and encourage the Netherlands and Japan to match the restrictions of U.S. export controls.
ASML Dominates Market
That’s because this market segment is dominated by the Netherlands’ ASML, competing with smaller Japanese rival Nikon. ASML’s technology is the leader in lithography, in which fine circuit patterns are transferred to silicon wafers.
According to ASML, China was its biggest market in Q4, 2025 and represented 36% of net system sales. Export restrictions would therefore be a significant blow to the business.
According to analysis from Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington, D.C. think tank, China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing machinery have surged in recent years, growing from $10.7 billion in 2016 to about $51.1 billion last year.
Republican Michael Baumgartner said: “China has made it abundantly clear that it intends to dominate the technologies that underpin both our economy and our national defense. The United States cannot afford to leave open back doors that allow the Chinese Communist Party to acquire the tools it needs to leap ahead in semiconductor manufacturing.”
Is ASML a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, ASML has a Strong Buy consensus based on 11 Buy ratings. Its highest price target is $1,971. ASML stock’s consensus price target is $1,643.45, implying a 24.77% upside.
