Down doesn’t mean out. When a stock takes a tumble, investors sometimes jump the gun and assume that the name has reached the end of the line. Sure, a significant share price decline should sound the alarm bells, as it could indicate underlying problems with the business or insurmountable headwinds.
However, there’s another side to the story. These falls could reflect temporary challenges that can ultimately be overcome, with the lower prices presenting an opportunity to get in on the action before the stock takes back off on an upward trajectory.
So, how are investors supposed to distinguish between the names poised to get back on their feet and those set to remain down in the dumps? That’s what the pros on Wall Street are here for.
Using TipRanks’ database, we pinpointed two beaten-down stocks the analysts believe are gearing up for a rebound. Despite the hefty losses incurred so far in 2020, both tickers have scored enough praise from the Street to earn a “Strong Buy” consensus rating. Not to mention some serious upside potential is at play here.
The Marcus Corporation (MCS)
As one of the leaders in the lodging and entertainment industries, The Marcus Corporation boasts several real estate assets that include hotels, resorts, theatres and restaurants. Although shares have plummeted 60% since the turn of the year, analysts believe that the company has taken steps in the right direction.
B. Riley FBR analyst Eric Wold points out that during a quarter in which almost all of its theaters and the majority of its hotels were closed, MCS delivered an upset, with its Q2 2020 results surpassing expectations. Total revenues of $7.9 million blew the $3 million consensus estimate out of the water. This was driven by the reopening of its hotel network towards the end of the quarter. Additionally, thanks to its focus on limiting expenses, AEBITDA of -$30 million bested the Street’s -$40.4 million call.
Adding to the good news, Wold told clients, “Even with fluctuations around the upcoming film slate, we continue to believe studios are more likely to adopt a staggered release schedule—even with the disappointing after-hours news about ‘Mulan’ going directly to Disney+. With that in mind, management noted an expectation that the majority of the company’s circuit by late August—which would be in time for the planned opening of ‘Tenet’ over the Labor Day holiday weekend.”
When it comes to predicting what attendance will look like, uncertainty regarding slate and capacity limitations cause Wold to take a more “cautious approach.” Although attendance could remain well below 2019 levels until 2021, the analyst thinks there’s a high likelihood that it will rebound to within 5-10% of 2019 levels in 2022.
What’s more, as only ~3% of revenues for MCS are being used to cover rent expenses compared to ~11-18% for its peers, Wold argues “MCS gains an advantage by owning the majority of its real estate in the ramp toward profitability coming out of the COVID-19 shutdowns with a much lower break-even point compared to its peers on lower attendance levels.”
To sum it all up, the analyst commented, “With multiple opportunities to extract value from that real estate, we believe it needs to be included in any valuation analysis and should, at a minimum, provide a valuation floor for MCS well above where the shares are trading.”
All of the above keeps Wold with the bulls. As a result, the analyst rates MCS a Buy rating along with a $27 price target. This target puts the upside potential at 115%. (To watch Wold’s track record, click here)
Overall, the bulls represent the overwhelming majority. Out of 3 total reviews published in the last three months, all 3 analysts rated the stock a Buy. So, the message is clear: MCS is a Strong Buy. At $22.67, the average price target brings the upside potential to ~81%. (See MCS stock analysis on TipRanks)
Zogenix (ZGNX)
Developing and commercializing cutting-edge therapies, Zogenix believes its assets could potentially transform the lives of patients battling rare diseases. Sliding 54% year-to-date, some members of the Street see better days ahead.
Covering the stock for Northland, analyst Carl Byrnes tells clients that its FINTEPLA drug is “positioned to emerge as a breakthrough therapy for treating various forms of pediatric-onset epilepsy,” putting potential U.S. peak sales at roughly $2 billion.
To support this claim, Byrnes cites the therapy’s recent launch. Back in June, the FDA gave the asset its stamp of approval for the treatment of seizures associated with Dravet’s syndrome (DS). Weighing in on its performance so far, Byrnes stated, “The FINTEPLA launch is progressing well, with over 230 HCPs in the U.S. successfully completing the REMS certification process. Further, the company has engaged 450 HCP (epileptologists and pediatric neurologists) that collectively treat ~80% of patients with DS.”
Additionally, FINTEPLA’s marketing authorization application (MAA) is being reviewed in the EU, with the initial launch in Germany slated for Q1 2021. The submission of a J-NDA for regulatory authorization in Japan is expected to come in 1H21.
Based on this impressive showing, Byrnes argues “FINTEPLA is positioned to emerge as a blockbuster therapy for treating rare forms of pediatric onset epilepsy which are highly refractory to existing therapies.” He also mentioned, “We see FINTEPLA as a breakthrough therapy for patients not adequately controlled with their existing treatment regimens. We anticipate epileptologists and neurologists will eagerly adopt FINTEPLA into treatment regimens, considering its profound efficacy.”
If that wasn’t enough, ZGNX’s management team is planning to discuss its sNDA submission for Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) with the FDA in September. “We anticipate sNDA filing for LGS in Q2 2021. We note that Study 1601 demonstrated that LGS patients treated with FINTEPLA achieved a statistically significant median reduction of 26.5% in monthly drop seizure frequency, p=0.0012,” Byrnes said.
To this end, the analyst puts an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating and $65 price target on the stock. The implication for investors? Upside potential of 171%. (To watch Byrnes’ track record, click here)
What do other analysts have to say? As the stock has received 6 Buy ratings and 2 Holds in the last three months, the word on the Street is that ZGNX is a Strong Buy. Given the $46.29 average price target, shares could rise 93% in the year ahead. (See Zogenix stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
