Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has always been regarded as more of a tech play than merely a maker of electric vehicles. These days, however, the automaker element is often absent from the conversation when the future of the company is discussed.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsBut it really shouldn’t be, says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “Sure, Tesla’s story has evolved,” Gianarikas says. “The headlines are focused on robo- this and tera-that – but we maintain an unwavering belief in the inevitable transition to electric transport. The true mobility revolution isn’t just about who drives – it’s about what powers the journey. It’s electric (boogie-woogie-woogie).”
Electric vehicle sales continue to play a major role in Tesla’s earnings, having made up the vast majority of the company’s revenue in 2025. With that in mind, ahead of the delivery figures slated for release this week, Gianarikas has modestly increased his 1Q26 delivery estimate from 367,700 to 370,000.
Gianarikas’ latest global checks point to a soft China market, a U.S. and European environment that is improving “but still meh,” and solid momentum across the rest of the world. The analyst also thinks EVs could be gaining stronger traction with U.S. consumers lately, with higher gas prices and a recent uptick in used Tesla prices suggesting that a “significant market improvement may be on the horizon.”
Meanwhile, Gianarikas also touches on the most significant recent development at Tesla – the announcement of the Terafab project, a partnership between Tesla and SpaceX. The initiative aims to drive what is described as “galactic-scale innovation” by producing more than one terawatt of AI compute annually, a level roughly 50 times current global output. Musk presents this as foundational infrastructure for a multi-planetary future, designed to overcome capacity constraints at traditional suppliers such as TSMC through “unprecedented vertical integration.” Based at Giga Texas, the project combines AI hardware, robotics, and orbital systems into a unified ecosystem. By shortening chip development timelines from months to days, Terafab is expected to begin ramping production in 2027, with the goal of turning the concept of a “galactic civilization” into a “tangible, high-velocity reality.”
“Though the ambitious path to redefining the semiconductor supply chain is paved with material risk, Elon Musk is perhaps the only figure with the industrial appetite and disruptive spirit to see it through,” Gianarikas said on the matter.
Back to the here and now, given lower trading multiples among other Mag 7 stocks vs. his prior Tesla update, Gianarikas has reduced Tesla’s multiple to ~37x from ~46x, applied to his $11.30 2028E non-GAAP EPS, while keeping 2028 estimates unchanged. That results in a $420 price target (lowered from $520), which suggests shares will add 18% in the months ahead. Gianarikas’ rating stays a Buy. (To watch Gianarikas’ track record, click here)
12 other analysts also consider the stock a Buy, while 11 Holds and 7 Sells all add up to a Hold consensus rating. Going by the $395.33 average target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for an 11% premium. (See Tesla stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.