Apple Stock (AAPL) Flattens on Global Shipment Fears

Shares in Apple (AAPL) were flat today as a new report said global smartphone shipments for the industry this year would be lower than expected because of trade uncertainty.

Tariff Talk

Research firm Counterpoint cut growth expectations to 1.9%, down from its earlier forecast of 4.2%. Its main concerns revolved around President Donald Trump’s tariffs strategy, even though levies on smartphones and other electronic devices were suspended as part of his 90 day pause.

However, the threat that the tariffs may be reinstated as well as higher rates already in place for key economies such as the EU, U.K. and China has forced smartphone makers into new strategies. One example is Apple looking to move part of its supply chain away from China to India and the U.S.

Apple sells more than 220 million iPhones a year worldwide, with a fifth of total iPhone imports to the United States now coming from India, and the rest from China.

The research firm also revised year-on-year shipment growth from China down to near-flat, while Apple and Samsung’s shipments are expected to slow as cost increases are passed on to consumers.

American Decline

Indeed, the North American market is expected to decline as smartphone price increases resulting from tariffs dial down demand.

“We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series’s strong performance in Q1 2025. Moreover, premiumization trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and GCC – these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones,” said Counterpoint’s associate director Liz Lee.

However, Chinese group Huawei’s growth outlook was upgraded due to easing supply chain bottlenecks and “sustained momentum from its self-developed chips.”

Counterpoint’s warning on slowing growth is not alone. Last month, International Data Corporation slashed its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast from 2.3% to 0.6%, again citing tariff-driven economic uncertainty and more cautious consumer spending.

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