Tesla (TSLA) stock has climbed 1.5% over the past week but slid 9.6% in the last month, while still soaring 54.6% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, with a Hold consensus and a 12‑month price target of $394.36, pointing to only modest upside from the last closing price of $360.59.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsAmong the more skeptical voices is Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan, who reiterated a Sell rating on TSLA on April 6, 2026 and kept a sharply lower price target of $145, implying around 60% downside from current levels. Brinkman ranks 10,493 out of 12,068 analysts, with a 49.8% success rate and an average return of -1.6% per rating.
Brinkman’s caution follows Tesla’s 1Q26 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles, which missed the latest Bloomberg consensus of 372,000 and his own 385,000 forecast, and came in a dramatic 74% below peak expectations from mid‑2022. He also flagged a rare setback in energy storage, where installations fell 15% year over year to 8.8 GWh, far short of the 14.4 GWh company‑compiled consensus.
Earnings expectations have been cut accordingly, with Brinkman lowering his 1Q26 EPS estimate from $0.43 to $0.30 and trimming his 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts below consensus. He argues that despite Tesla’s innovative products, strong brand, and lack of legacy costs, growing execution risks, rising competition, and brand controversy make the current valuation difficult to justify.
What troubles this analyst most is that TSLA shares are about 50% higher than in June 2022 even as 2026 revenue, EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow expectations have collapsed, turning an expected cash inflow into a projected outflow. Brinkman maintains his Underweight stance and $145 December 2026 target, advising investors to be highly cautious and mindful of the gap between lofty share prices and weakened fundamentals. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.