Tesla (TSLA) stock has risen 6.1% over the past week, fallen 7.9% over the past month, and climbed 43.3% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, forecasting limited upside for TSLA over the next twelve months with an average price target of $402.29 versus the last close at $364.20.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsAnalyst Joseph Spak of UBS upgraded TSLA to Hold on April 14, 2026, with a $352 price target, implying modest downside from current levels. He argues that today’s price more evenly balances near term demand challenges and heavy investment with Tesla’s long term “physical AI” opportunity.
Spak believes Tesla’s auto business faces headwinds, forecasting 1.6 million deliveries in 2026, down 1% year over year, but sees potential from new models like a smaller SUV plus Cybercab and Semi ramping in modest volumes. He expects deliveries to grow at a 7% CAGR to 2.1 million by 2030, well below consensus, yet sees the stock trading more on sentiment and momentum than on fundamentals.
In energy, he attributes a recent 1Q26 shortfall mainly to timing and still projects around 26% annual growth in storage deployments through 2030, while noting some concern about late 2026 2027 LFP battery availability in the U.S. Tesla’s investments in U.S. LFP capacity may ease this risk over time, supporting its broader physical AI and infrastructure ambitions.
On robo taxi and Optimus, Spak highlights elevated expectations after Tesla targeted nine cities by the first half of 2026, then saw worries over slow progress in Austin, though he thinks that market could scale later this year. He expects continued Full Self Driving improvement, sees a large long term opportunity in robotaxis and humanoid robots where Tesla could be a U.S. leader, and values the stock at $352 using 150x 2027 earnings, slightly below its one year average multiple.
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