Tesla (TSLA) stock has risen 1.7% over the past week, fallen 10.9% in the last month, and is still up a strong 39.7% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, with a consensus Hold rating and a 12‑month average price target of $402.29 versus a last close of $352.42, implying moderate upside but also signaling caution after the recent volatility.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsAnalyst Joseph Spak of UBS Securities has just upgraded Tesla to Hold from a more negative stance, setting a price target of $352, right around current trading levels. His move reflects a view that today’s price more evenly balances near term demand challenges and heavy investment spending with Tesla’s longer term opportunity in what he calls physical AI, rather than a strong conviction that fundamentals have suddenly improved.
Spak argues that Tesla stock still trades more on sentiment, narrative, and momentum than on current earnings power, highlighting worries about electric vehicle demand, a first quarter 2026 energy business shortfall, higher costs, and rising capital expenditures. He also notes slower than hoped progress in robo taxi services and the Optimus humanoid robot, which has weighed on the share price, even as he continues to see Tesla as a leader in these emerging technologies.
Looking across Tesla’s businesses, Spak forecasts 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2026, slightly down year on year, with potential modest volume from new products such as the Cybercab and Semi later this year and the possibility of a smaller SUV to broaden the lineup. In energy storage, he projects about 26% annual growth in deployments through 2030 and sees some near term risks around battery availability in the U.S., though he points out Tesla is investing locally to reduce that concern over time.
On robo taxis, Spak believes long term that Tesla can offer lower cost per mile transport and emerge as one of the U.S. leaders, while consumer Full Self Driving adoption could improve as the technology advances. For Optimus, he thinks Musk’s aggressive timelines are likely optimistic and that supply chain issues could slow rollout, yet he still views it as a large opportunity, supporting his 2027 earnings forecast that underpins a 150x P/E valuation and his Hold stance. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.