Shopify Stock Forecast: Trending Strongly Bullish With AI Tailwind

Shopify (SHOP) stock has fallen 4.7% over the past year, sliding 15.8% in the last month but rebounding 9.9% in the past week. Wall Street’s analysts are strongly bullish, with a 12‑month consensus price target of $164.55 versus the last close at $121.64, implying meaningful upside from current levels.

Analyst Helena Wang of Phillip Securities upgraded Shopify to Buy on February 18, 2026 with a target price of $160, also signaling solid potential upside from where the stock trades today. Wang holds a mid-pack ranking of 6,160 out of 12,061 analysts on TipRanks, with a 37.5% success rate and an average return of 3.7% per rating.

Wang’s report points to strong AI-powered growth as a key driver, with Shopify’s 4Q25 revenue broadly in line with expectations despite weaker adjusted profits caused by payment-mix pressure and higher PayPal processing costs. Full-year 2025 revenue reached 102% of her forecast, while adjusted profit came in at 92%, still supported by a robust topline.

Revenue grew 31% year over year in the quarter, powered by both subscription solutions, up 17%, and merchant solutions, up 35%, although margins slipped by 2 percentage points as payment revenue, a lower-margin stream, expanded. Wang highlights Shopify’s ability to win major enterprise clients like GM, Sonos, L’Oréal, Keurig Dr Pepper, and Amer Sports, and notes that international revenue rose 36%, with Europe especially strong.

The analyst is particularly upbeat on Shopify’s ecosystem flywheel around payments and AI-driven “Agentic Commerce.” Shopify Payments penetration climbed to 68% of GMV, with $84 billion processed in 4Q25, boosting checkout conversion and repeat purchases, while AI‑originated orders have surged 15‑fold since January 2025, reinforcing her view that Shopify remains well-positioned to capture structural growth in next-generation e‑commerce.

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