Qualcomm Stock Forecast: Analysts Signal Cautious Hold Trend

(QCOM) stock has fallen 0.7% over the past week, dropped 9.4% in the last month, and is down 15.8% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, with a 12‑month price target of $157.86, implying moderate upside from the last close at $130.35 but not enough conviction to move the consensus beyond Hold.

One of the most influential voices weighing in is Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein, a 5‑star analyst ranked 144 out of 12,068 on TipRanks, with a 62.54% success rate and a strong 29.6% average return per rating. Rasgon downgraded Qualcomm from Outperform to Hold on March 26, 2026, cutting the price target from $175 to $140, which still suggests some upside but reflects growing caution.

Rasgon argues that while Qualcomm’s management is “doing everything right,” the company is stuck in what he calls a “bad neighborhood” for now. He points to mounting memory headwinds in the smartphone industry that could drive double‑digit unit declines this year, weighing on overall shipments and putting pressure on earnings expectations.

The analyst also highlights that many on the sell side have been “astonishingly lazy” in modeling the impact of Apple’s (AAPL) modem roll‑off, leaving current forecasts looking too optimistic. Added to this are potential narrative headwinds around the expiration of Qualcomm’s Apple license agreement in a year and shifting share dynamics with Samsung, which could further unsettle investors.

Even though Rasgon still sees Qualcomm as extremely cheap on his revised numbers, he warns that low valuation alone may not be enough to attract buyers when “actual AI winners” can be bought for under 15x earnings on more realistic assumptions. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.