PayPal Stock Forecast: Analysts See Cautious, Trending Hold

PayPal Holdings’ (PYPL) stock has fallen 7.7% over the past week, gained 3.1% in the last month, yet is still down 32.3% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, with a consensus Hold rating and a 12‑month average price target of $49.28, implying only modest upside from the last close at $46.27.

Analyst Gustavo Gala reiterated a Hold rating on $PYPL on May 6, 2026, setting a price target of $50, which signals limited upside and a cautious stance. Gala effectively argues that PayPal’s fair value now sits closer to this level after further cutting estimates and assigning about 8x to his reduced 2026 EBITDA forecast.

Gala highlights that management reiterated guidance, with total margin dollars expected to remain flat to slightly down and EPS likely to be roughly flat, around low-single-digit movements. Second-quarter guidance for about $1.27 in non-GAAP EPS came in light versus Street expectations, while a $1.5 billion savings program is still seen as vague and difficult for investors to fully trust.

The analyst also points to strategic uncertainty around Venmo, which will become a separate reporting segment only in 2027, delaying clearer visibility on its economics and the savings plan. While management has ruled out a Venmo spinoff for now, Gala suggests that if monetization challenges linger, investors may push harder for simplification, questioning whether Venmo is better off outside PayPal.

Gala notes competitive and structural headwinds in payments, with slowing card volumes and rising rivals potentially pressuring industry revenue growth and margins. His track record is mixed: ranked 8,769 out of 12,173 analysts on TipRanks, he holds a 42.3% success rate and an average return of -0.4% per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.