Netflix (NFLX) stock has risen 4.6% over the past week, 13.7% in the last month, and 10.7% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are strongly bullish, forecasting a move toward a 12‑month average price target of $114.94 from the last closing price of $107.71.
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Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak of Pivotal Research Group reiterated a Hold rating on NFLX on April 16, 2026, with a price target of $96, implying downside from current levels. He views the stock as fairly valued after an in-line first-quarter report and weaker than expected guidance for second-quarter revenue and operating income.
Wlodarczak notes that an ever larger share of customers, now around 60%, are on under-monetized advertising plans, which weighs on revenue despite price hikes arriving sooner than expected. While engagement held around plus 2%, he sees growth increasingly driven by price increases and ad gains from a low base rather than by robust subscriber growth.
The analyst is increasingly concerned that short-form entertainment platforms like TikTok, Instagram, X, YouTube Shorts, and Snap are drawing younger viewers away from long-form content, which could slow subscriber growth. He also highlights pressure from free ad-supported TV channels that appeal to lower income households facing inflation, as well as a stronger global competitor in the combined PSKY and WBD group.
Post-earnings, Wlodarczak trimmed his long-term subscriber forecast for 2030 from 405 million to 398 million but raised his 2026 year-end target price by $1 to $96 on higher ARPU and a WBD deal break fee. This 3.3-star analyst ranks 3042 out of 12155 on TipRanks, with a 51.15% success rate and a 3.3% average return per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.