(IBM) stock has fallen 12.1% over the past week, dropped 22.2% in the last month, and is down 8.8% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish, with a 12‑month consensus price target of $337.53, implying meaningful upside from the last closing price of $229.32.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade IBMAnalyst David Vogt of UBS has upgraded IBM shares to Hold from Sell, setting a price target of $236.00, which signals only modest upside from current levels. He argues that after IBM’s sharp underperformance versus the S&P 500, the risk‑reward profile now looks more balanced for investors.
Vogt notes that IBM’s valuation has reset, with the stock trading around 18.5x and 17.5x his CY26 and CY27 EPS estimates of $12.43 and $13.13, respectively. This multiple, alongside a roughly 7% free cash flow yield, appears fair given his expectation for 3%–4% organic revenue growth over the next several years.
He acknowledges market concerns about AI’s impact on IBM’s software and infrastructure businesses, especially fears that AI‑driven modernization of legacy COBOL could hurt its mainframe operations. However, Vogt believes these headwinds are largely priced in and points to strong customer stickiness, data sovereignty needs, and IBM’s vertically integrated, quantum‑safe platform as key supports.
Previously, Vogt’s Sell rating was driven by uneven execution, reliance on M&A for growth, and a premium valuation versus the broader market and faster‑growing tech peers. Now, with Red Hat slowing, consulting growth muted, and infrastructure fears weighing on the stock, he sees IBM trading at a mid‑teens discount to the market, making a Neutral stance more appropriate. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.
Analyst David Vogt (UBS) upgraded IBM to Hold with a $236.00 price target, implying limited near‑term upside from current levels. This N‑star analyst ranks #2968 out of 12078, with a 60.0% success rate and a 7.4% average return per rating.

