Tesla’s (TSLA) first‑quarter delivery report is drawing a cautious response from Wall Street. Analysts flagged weaker‑than‑expected numbers and growing investor focus on the company’s autonomy and robotics roadmap ahead of the company’s earnings report due on April 22.
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Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch reiterated a Hold rating after Tesla reported vehicle deliveries that came in about 2% below estimates. The bigger surprise, he said, was in Energy Storage, where deployments of 8.8 GWh landed 32% below expectations, suggesting seasonality was more significant than anticipated.
Rusch noted that Tesla is pushing ahead with heavy capital spending as it builds a more vertically integrated supply chain to support its “Physical AI” ambitions. While investors may be disappointed by the Q1 numbers, he believes the bigger focus will be on autonomy progress and humanoid robot development when Tesla reports upcoming earnings.
William Blair Flags a ‘Big Miss’ in Energy Storage
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer also reiterated a Hold rating, calling the Energy Storage results a “big miss.” Tesla’s 8.8 GWh deployment fell far short of both the Street’s 14.4 GWh estimate and his own 18 GWh forecast.
Dorsheimer acknowledged that the storage business can be lumpy due to customer grid-connection timing, but said that alone does not fully explain the drop‑off. He emphasized that demand remains strong, especially for Megapacks, which he sees as important to the AI data center and power-infrastructure buildout.
Given that backdrop, he said the team is “confused” about what happened with supply this quarter. If timing issues are the main driver, he expects a sharp rebound in Q2.
Is Tesla a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, TSLA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the last three months. At $395.31, the average Tesla price target implies an 8.2% upside potential.
