AMZN, WMT, TGT: Black Friday Boom Rolls Into Cyber Monday — What It Means for Retail Stocks

The U.S. online retail boom just got louder, and that could matter for retail giants like Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT). U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday this year, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. The jump came as shoppers used AI-powered tools to find deals faster while avoiding crowded stores.

What Drove the Surge

This year’s jump in spending wasn’t just about discounts. Many shoppers used AI tools to help find deals, compare prices, and make decisions faster. Adobe said traffic from these tools rose 805% from last year, helped by new AI assistants like Amazon’s Rufus and Walmart’s Sparky. For many people, the process felt easier and less stressful than scrolling through endless product pages.

Mobile shopping also played a big role. More people checked out on their phones instead of using laptops or going into stores. Mastercard SpendingPulse said online spending grew 10.4%, while in-store sales rose 1.7%, showing that shoppers preferred staying home and shopping at their own pace.

Early signs point to strong demand for popular gift items. Gaming consoles, LEGO sets, Pokémon cards, Apple AirPods from Apple (AAPL), luxury apparel, and kitchen appliances were among the top sellers. Salesforce (CRM) also estimated that AI-guided shopping influenced $14.2 billion in online sales worldwide, including $3 billion in the U.S.

Which Stocks Could Be the Big Winners?

A record-spending weekend sets the tone for the rest of the holiday season, and several major retail stocks could rise if the momentum continues:

• AMZN — The e-commerce giant remains the top destination for online shopping. Its growing use of AI-driven product discovery and price comparison tools may help push higher order values through the season.
  
  
• WMT — Walmart is gaining share in online retail thanks to fast delivery and store pickup. The company is poised to benefit both from heavy online orders and in-store pickup demand. Its diversified retail model gives it a competitive edge this season.
  
  
• Target — While Target hasn’t been the front-page retail winner lately, a strong Black Friday and broader holiday push might help it stabilize if consumers seek value deals across categories.

Salesforce data showed U.S. consumers spent $18 billion online when including groceries and essentials, with luxury items showing surprising strength. That may support names like Nordstrom (JWN) and Lululemon (LULU).

Cyber Monday Could Break New Records

What comes next is Cyber Monday, and Adobe expects online sales to reach $14.2 billion, which would make it the biggest online shopping day of the year. Electronics could see discounts of up to 30%, along with strong deals on apparel and computers.

Still, the picture isn’t fully upbeat. Salesforce noted shoppers are buying fewer items per order, with units per transaction falling 2% and order volumes slipping 1%, even as average selling prices rose 7% due to tariffs and higher costs.

AMZN, WMT, or TGT: Which Stock Offers the Highest Upside, According to Analysts?

TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool shows strong analyst confidence across the three retail names. Amazon and Walmart both carry a Strong Buy rating from analysts, while Target holds a cautious Hold rating.

Amazon’s average analyst price target sits at $295.23, which points to about 26.6% upside. Meanwhile, Walmart’s average price target of $121.92, suggests about 10.3% upside. Target trails the group with a more modest return outlook. TGT’s average price target stands at $97.41, which points to about 7.5% upside.

Bottom Line

Record spending signals strong demand, and AI is now a real driver in how people shop. If momentum continues into December, Amazon, Walmart, and Target could be early retail winners heading into the holiday earnings season.