AMD or Intel: Stifel Chooses the Better AI Chip Stock to Buy Ahead of Earnings

The Q1 season is now in full swing, and it takes place against a backdrop of continued macro uncertainty due to a fragile ceasefire in the US-Israel vs. Iran war, one that could collapse at any moment. Yet, that uncertainty hasn’t kept investors on the sidelines – especially when it comes to AI.

That has been the case for both Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), with investors pushing both stocks higher in recent sessions – AMD hitting an all-time high and Intel climbing to levels not seen in more than two decades.

Stifel’s Ruben Roy, who ranks 8th among Wall Street analysts, explains what’s driving the move: “AI-driven compute demand continues to run above expectations across both accelerated and general-purpose architectures, while sector P/E multiples (FY2 basis, 6Mo. M.A.) have expanded back toward the 25x range for fabless names after a mid-cycle compression.”

However, Roy doesn’t think all companies involved in the AI game are made from the same cloth. Ahead of both AMD and Intel’s Q1 earnings, Roy thinks one case is stronger than the other.

So, let’s see which AI chip stock Stifel currently favors, and with some help from the TipRanks database, we can see whether the Street agrees with their choices. 

Advanced Micro Devices

We’ll start with AMD, a company that so far has held a curious standing in the world of AI. Often seen as a sort of second-rate Nvidia, given its share of the AI accelerator market is much smaller, the company has been pushing back against that perception over the past year. It now seems like investors are buying into the idea that the Lisa Su-led company is set to become a force to be reckoned with in the AI chip industry. To wit, the shares are up by 213% over the last 12 months.

Essentially, the bear case has been that AMD’s AI chips aren’t as good as market leader Nvidia’s and that it lacks the complete ecosystem its rival has to compete. But that idea has taken a bit of a knock as AMD has nabbed some mega deals with companies such as Meta, OpenAI and Oracle, while its upcoming Instinct MI450 GPUs, which are set to feature in its Helios platform, are designed to go head-to-head with Nvidia’s products.

Meanwhile, AMD’s CPU revenue has been surging, primarily fueled by outsized demand for AI inference workloads alongside ongoing gains in server market share. By early 2026, the company exceeded a 40% revenue share in the server CPU segment and achieved record unit share levels across desktop, laptop, and server categories. In 4Q25, total revenue reached an all-time high of $10.27 billion, representing a 34.1% year-over-year uptick.

Nevertheless, it is understood that the stock’s trajectory largely depends on the long-term AI chip outlook, a point made by Stifel’s Roy ahead of AMD’s quarterly readout on May 5.

The analyst thinks the company is up to the task, and writes, “The fundamental setup heading into the print is constructive, and we think near-term results are secondary to longer-term commentary. Q1 guidance of ~$9.8B (+32% y/y) with counter-seasonal Data Center CPU growth and GPU (ex-China) growth is already well-framed. Investor focus will appropriately be on MI450/Helios rack validation status, Meta and OpenAI ramp cadence updates, and any incremental color on additional gigawatt-scale customer engagements. AMD’s $20+ EPS long-term target pre-dates the recently announced Meta deal, making it a floor rather than a ceiling.”

“AMD shares have recovered in recent weeks, now up ~30% YTD and trading at 25x our FY27E adj-EPS, pressured relative to AMD’s own history and peers as the investor debate regarding positioning against Nvidia and custom ASIC approaches rages on,” Roy added. “We believe valuation should recover toward at least the five-year average as the MI450 ramp commences and management reaffirms the longer-term earnings trajectory.”

To this end, Roy rates AMD shares a Buy while his $320 price target (raised from $280) offers 12-month returns of ~17%. (To watch Roy’s track record, click here)

19 other analysts join Roy in the bull camp, yet with an additional 8 Holds, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Yet, after the recent rally, the $287.33 average price target suggests limited near-term upside. That said, the upcoming earnings could drive meaningful target revisions in either direction depending on how the results come in. (See AMD stock forecast)

Intel

If AMD has struggled to keep its AI story on a smooth path, Intel has taken a far more puzzling route. Once the undisputed force in semiconductors, the chip giant now finds itself trying to reclaim lost ground after a series of strategic missteps. Missed inflection points – from sitting out the mobile wave to passing on a chance to manufacture chips for Apple – combined with internal execution issues have left Intel playing catch-up. Along the way, it has steadily lost CPU share to AMD while falling behind in the race to power the next generation of AI-driven computing.

Which begs the question, why is the stock up by 248% over the past year?

Investors appear to be embracing the turnaround narrative, as the chipmaker has recently announced several deals that have chimed well with both the investor base and on Wall Street. These have included its participation in the Terafab initiative led by Elon Musk, while the company also pointed to an expanded partnership with Google focused on semi-custom CPUs and DPUs. Additionally, Intel confirmed it will repurchase a 49% stake in its Fab 34 facility from Apollo Global Management for $14.2 billion, restoring full ownership.

Furthermore, since stepping into the role, new CEO Lip-Bu Tan has shored up the balance sheet, bringing in roughly $17.9 billion in cash through investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, backing from the U.S. government, and the sale of a 51% stake in Altera, which has strengthened the company’s financial position. At the same time, demand for server CPUs, particularly those tied to agentic AI, has been increasing at a fast pace.

So, does this all set the scene for a strong Q1 readout when Intel reports on Thursday (April 23)? Not necessarily, says Roy, who takes a cautious stance, especially considering the huge share gains.

“INTC enters 1Q earnings with an improving narrative, 18A yields progressing ahead of internal schedule, server CPU demand well above expectations, and the September NVIDIA partnership validating the x86 ecosystem,” Roy explained. “However, we think the stock’s sharp recent re-rating has gotten ahead of near-term fundamentals. Gross margins are likely to remain anchored in the low-to-mid 30s% in the near term, foundry losses remain a headwind to reported profitability, and the next meaningful competitive server CPU refresh (Coral Rapids) is a late 2027/2028 event.”

To that end, Roy isn’t rushing to chase the rally. The analyst assigns INTC a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating, and while his price target jumps from $42 to $65, it still sits 1% below where the stock trades today.

The broader Street isn’t much more enthusiastic. With 23 Holds outweighing just 6 Buys and 4 Sells, the consensus view also lands firmly in neutral territory. In fact, the $54.75 average price target implies something more concerning: shares could drift ~17% lower over the next year. (See INTC stock forecast)

Evidently, then, with Q1 results coming up for both these AI chip firms, Stifel thinks AMD is better positioned at the moment.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.