Medical cannabis stock Tilray (TLRY) is set to report its Q3 earnings tomorrow – April 1. The stock is down over 33% in the last three months, dragged lower by struggling beverage sales and uncertainty over U.S. drug regulations.
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According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about an 11.19% move in either direction in TLRY stock in reaction to its Q3 results.
What Wall Street Expects
Wall Street expects Tilray to post earnings of -$0.14 per share compared with -$0.87 this time last year. Revenues are tipped to come in at $201.3 million, up 8% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be $10.8 million, up 20%.
Could Tilray beat these forecasts? As can be seen below, it has a fairly poor record of doing just that. So, don’t hold your breath!
Key Issues Ahead of Earnings
In Q2, TLRY reported record net revenue of $217.5 million, beating analyst expectations. It reported global cannabis net revenue of $67.5 million, with international cannabis up 36% year-over-year and sequential growth of 51% driven by higher-margin international markets.
However, beverage net revenue of $50.1 million faced category headwinds in craft beer and ongoing portfolio optimization. There are also concerns over the impact of a new law coming this November on hemp-derived cannabinoid products.
Management is likely to face questions on these issues and also about its recent acquisition of BrewDog Brewing Australia, including BrewDog’s Australian brewing and production facility in Brisbane, Queensland.
TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow recently lowered his price target on Tilray to $7 from $10, but kept a Buy rating on the shares. He lowered his EBITDA estimates for fiscal 3Q26 and FY26 mostly from higher aluminum costs and the risk that the company’s beverage business may not be fully hedged. Aluminum prices have increased further this year due to the supply shocks from the Iran conflict. That will affect packaging costs.
Alliance Global analyst Aaron Grey lowered his price target on Tilray to $9 from $10 and kept a Neutral rating on the shares after the company announced the BrewDog acquisition. He views the ability for Tilray to turn around trends and capitalize on synergies as key to the success of the acquisition.
Is TLRY a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, TLRY has a Hold consensus based on 1 Buy and 5 Hold ratings. Its highest price target is $10. TLRY stock’s consensus price target is $8.97, implying a 49.75% upside.
