Banking giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is set to report its Q1 earnings next week. The stock is down 3% in the year-to-date as investors fret about the cost of its AI investment plans and geopolitical uncertainty from the conflict in Iran.
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According to TipRanks’ Options tool, options traders expect about a 4.10% move in either direction in JPM stock in reaction to its Q1 results.
What Wall Street Expects
Wall Street expects JPM to report quarterly earnings of $5.46 per share, indicating an increase of 7.7% compared to the year-ago period. Revenues are tipped to come in at $48.56 billion, representing an increase of 7.2% year over year.
Will JPM beat these estimates? As can be seen below, it has a strong track record of doing just that.
Key Issues Ahead of Earnings
In Q4, JPM reported revenue of $46.8 billion, up 7% year-over-year, driven by higher markets revenue, asset management fees and auto lease income.
Corporate & Investment Bank revenue was $19.4 billion, up 10% year over year with equities up 40% and fixed income/securitized products/EM rates up 7%. Asset & Wealth Management revenue was $6.5 billion, up 13%. However, quarterly operating expenses of $24.0 billion were up 5%, with investment banking fees also down 5%.
In Q1, strong demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans is expected to have helped its Net Interest Income. Deal-making activity, despite the Iran war, is expected to have been strong, with M&A driven by AI integration. Markets revenues are also expected to be higher with client activity and market volatility strong in the first quarter. Major factors that impacted trading business in the quarter included shifting expectations around AI, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over the Middle East and the risk of an oil shock, according to Zacks.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis, said investors will also be looking for evidence of a positive impact from JPM’s deal, back in January, with iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) to become the new issuer of Apple Card, replacing Goldman Sachs (GS). “They will also be looking for signs of an improvement on the investment banking side. Dimon has arguably raised the stakes ahead of the earnings by warning losses in the private credit market will be larger than many expect,” said Hewson. “Having compared bad loans to cockroaches last year, shareholders may be on tenterhooks to see if Dimon needs to get the bug spray out or whether JPMorgan is managing to keep a lid on the level of defaults.”
Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers recently lowered the price target for JPM stock to $325 from $345 and reiterated a Buy rating. The analyst lowered his price target to reflect reduced EPS estimates for 2026 and lower valuations for bank stocks. However, Siefers is bullish on JPMorgan’s prospects and believes that it will “hold up well as an ultra-conservative name in an increasingly fluid environment.”
Is JPM a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, JPM has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 12 Buy and 8 Hold ratings. Its highest price target is $400. JPM stock’s consensus price target is $337, implying a 9.14% upside.
