American Express (AXP) releases its Q1 earnings report tomorrow – April 23. Its stock is down nearly 10% so far this year, hit by its vulnerability to the AI revolution and softer consumer confidence.
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According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 3.94% move in either direction in AXP stock in reaction to its Q1 results.
What Wall Street Expects
Wall Street expects American Express to post quarterly earnings of $4.03 per share, reflecting an increase of 10.7% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $18.62 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.7%.
Will AXP beat these forecasts? As can be seen below, it has a strong track record of doing just that.
Key Issues Ahead of Earnings
In Q4 2025, American Express said that billed business or card member spending grew 8% year-over-year in line with the rest of the year. In terms of credit performance in Q4, American Express reported write-offs of $1.27 billion, up from $1.13 billion in the same period last year.
Net Interest Income, including revolving credit and Pay Over Time — expanded 12% year-over-year, while loans grew 7% year-over-year and margins increased by 4%.
Those numbers, though relatively strong, have failed to excite investors looking for higher growth. There are also concerns about the company’s exposure to AI technology, although it recently bought Hypercard, an agentic expense management company, adding to its AI expertise and capabilities across commercial services.
What do analysts think? Morgan Stanley analyst Jeffrey Adelson lowered the firm’s price target on American Express to $385 from $395 and kept an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm said it was lowering price targets for about half its consumer finance group coverage ahead of Q1 earnings to reflect higher macro uncertainty.
RBC’s Jon Arfstrom lowered his price target on American Express to $415 from $425 and kept an Outperform. He expects seasonal trends to drive lower loan balances with stable to improving year-over-year credit metrics. He expects AXP conference calls to focus on commentary around consumer sentiment and health amid recent macro volatility, even though he believes that “fundamentals remain healthy.”
Is AXP a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, AXP has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 7 Buy, 9 Hold and 1 Sell ratings. Its highest price target is $425. AXP stock’s consensus price target is $352.27, implying a 6.09% upside.
