Chinese e-commerce group PDD Holdings (PDD), parent of Temu and Pinduoduo, is set to report its Q4 earnings tomorrow – March 25. The stock is down 13% in the year-to-date, still reeling from President Trump’s move last year to end small, de minimis package tariff exemptions. It has also been hit by continued Chinese consumer uncertainty.
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According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 7.53% move in either direction in PDD stock in reaction to its Q4 results.
What Wall Street Expects
Wall Street expects PDD to report earnings per share of $3.06, marking a 10.9% increase year-over-year. Revenues are set to reach $18.15 billion, marking a 19.8% rise on the same period last year. Is PDD likely to beat these forecasts?
As can be seen below, it has a fairly strong recent track record of doing just that.
Key Issues Ahead of Earnings
In Q3, PDD Holdings reported RMB 108.3 billion in revenue, marking a 9% year-over-year increase. The revenue growth was primarily driven by a 10% increase in transaction services and an 8% rise in online marketing services. Agriculture sales grew by 47% year-over-year, with a notable increase in the number of agricultural merchants, especially those born in the 2000s, indicating growth in this sector.
Operating profit margin decreased from 27% to 25%, highlighting pressure on profitability due to increased investments and competition.
These factors are likely to have continued in Q4. Recently e-commerce rival JD.com (JD) missed Q4 expectations. Tough competition and fading government subsidies are hurting demand for China’s e-commerce companies. Consumers have been spending less in recent years amid a prolonged property crisis, job worries, and global tensions, slowing the world’s second-biggest economy.
Citi analyst Alicia Yap recently lowered the firm’s price target on PDD to $142 from $170 and kept a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 report. The firm sees slowing domestic retail sales offsetting a recovery of Temu U.S. traffic. Citi sees higher expenses impacting PDD’s profitability in 2026.