Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) and Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) are operating inside one of Wall Street’s most speculative transportation themes as the eVTOL industry pushes closer toward commercial reality. While the sector still faces steep financial and regulatory hurdles before becoming a mainstream business, recent developments suggest the flying-taxi race is moving beyond prototype showcases and early promotional campaigns. FAA-supported pilot programs, certification milestones, manufacturing progress, and liquidity strength are now becoming some of the biggest factors separating potential winners from companies that may struggle reaching large-scale operations.
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New trading tool for ACHR bullsJoby is a California-based developer of an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft designed for urban passenger transportation. The company plans to operate its own air-taxi network while also supplying aircraft to partners across several markets. During its latest quarter, Joby completed New York City’s first point-to-point eVTOL flights between JFK Airport and Manhattan heliports, flew its first FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization testing, and completed its SR3 FAA audit process. The company also ended the quarter with $2.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, giving management substantial financial flexibility while certification and commercialization efforts continue.
Archer is pursuing a similar opportunity through its Midnight aircraft, although the company has leaned heavily into partnerships and near-term deployment plans. Management stated that initial U.S. operations are expected to begin this year through the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program ahead of the Los Angeles Olympic Games in 2028. Archer also announced that it became the first eVTOL company to complete Phase 3 of the FAA’s four-phase Type Certification process while continuing piloted test flights and expanding operations at Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. Financial results remain challenging, which should surprise nobody following this industry closely. First-quarter revenue reached only $1.6 million, while net loss totaled $217.7 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $172.5 million. Still, Archer finished the quarter with $1.8 billion in liquidity.
For investors attempting to decide which company currently offers the better risk-reward profile, Goldman Sachs analyst Noah Poponak clearly dislikes Joby more than Archer right now, assigning JOBY a Sell rating alongside a $9 price target, implying about 13% downside from current levels.
Archer receives far less negative treatment from Goldman Sachs, with Poponak assigning ACHR a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating and a $9 price target, implying ~49% upside from the displayed share price.
The broader Wall Street outlook also leans more favorably toward Archer at this stage. JOBY currently carries a Hold consensus rating based on 2 Buy ratings, 4 Holds, and 3 Sells. Its average analyst price target stands at $11.79, implying ~14% upside from current levels. ACHR, meanwhile, carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating supported by 5 Buys, 2 Holds, and zero Sell ratings. Its average analyst price target currently stands at $12.33, implying ~104% upside from the displayed share price of $6.05.
