High-risk bets tied to military actions are winning at an unusual rate on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. A new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows these long-shot wagers beating usual outcomes.
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In response, experts warn that this could mean classified data is leaking into public markets, putting national security at risk. Regulators also caution that prediction markets can expose sensitive data and open doors to insider trading.
Military-Linked Bets on Polymarket Show Unusually High Win Rates
A new report by ACDC found that more than half of long-shot bets on military and defense events were successful on Polymarket. These bets typically had stakes of $2,500 or more, odds of 35% or less, and a win rate of about 52%.
This is far higher than the 25% win rate seen across politics-related markets and just 14% across the whole market on the platform. The data was based on 400,000 prediction market bets settled on Polymarket between January 2021 and March 2026.
This gap suggests that some users may have access to information concerning some bets that the public does not. This is because markets tied to military actions and government decisions are vulnerable, since outcomes are often controlled by a small group of insiders.
Regulators have also raised concerns about the ongoing issue. Yassamin Ansari, an Arizona lawmaker, described military wagers as “disturbing national security risks”, while Ritchie Torres, a New York democratic representative, warned that they could push insiders to exploit information to enrich themselves.
Real Cases Increase Worries about National Security
Recent events have added to the growing concerns about wagers linked to military actions. For instance, Ganon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Special Forces master, used classified data linked to the capture of Nicolas Maduro to place bets on Polymarket.
Authorities say that he placed around 13 bets across multiple wagers, totaling $33,034, and made nearly $400,000 in profit. These bets were made a week before the January 2026 operation in Venezuela.
At the same time, Israel charged a reservist and a civilian for using secret data to bet on military outcomes earlier this year. These patterns show how prediction markets can be exploited when sensitive data is involved.
The ACDC report also found that cultural markets, like awards and music events, had a 29% success rate on long-shot bets. In one case, betting rates surged ahead of Maria Corina Machado’s being named a Nobel Peace Prize winner, raising concerns about a leak of the event’s outcome.
Notably, some of Polymarket’s military and political odds have attracted heavy betting. These include $63 million in bets on a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal and $23 million on whether China will invade Taiwan in 2026.
To ease this tension, Polymarket noted that it had flagged suspicious activity in Van Dyke’s case and reported it to the authorities. The platform also said in an X post last week that the case was “proof that the system works”. However, it has declined to comment on the ACDC report, noting that it bans trading based on stolen or nonpublic info.
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