‘4 Times Nvidia’: Cowen Says Hold Your Horses on Intel Stock (INTC) Despite Rising CPU Demand

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) looks to be well-positioned as a beneficiary of rising CPU demand. Industry reports suggest that large hyperscale datacenter operators increasingly see CPU orchestration, rather than GPU compute power, as the main driver of latency in agentic AI responses. Essentially, agentic AI increases CPU importance because it relies on CPUs to manage and sequence all the behind-the-scenes tasks that organize and direct the work GPUs are doing.

According to TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter, this marks a meaningful shift from the prior narrative that gradually sidelined CPUs. Data centers may now need to scale up CPU capacity alongside GPUs, or risk leaving expensive accelerators underutilized while higher-level processes catch up.

That backdrop could work in Intel’s favor – at least near term. Unlike many peers, Intel is not heavily reliant on TSMC for its server CPU production. While certain PC components are outsourced, its core server roadmap remains largely in-house, potentially allowing Intel to pick up incremental demand if foundry constraints persist. The opportunity, however, hinges on execution. Visibility into the company’s progress at advanced nodes “remains limited,” and recent demand has leaned more toward legacy Intel 10/7-generation chips rather than its newest offerings.

Buchalter also points to Intel’s decision to regain full control of Ireland-based Fab 34 – by buying back a 49% stake from Apollo Global Management for $14.2 billion – as a sign of an “improved demand picture.” Intel has been losing share at cloud providers in higher-end server CPUs, but it could improve its position if it is able to ramp and improve yields for Intel 3-based Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids parts. “Still,” Buchalter adds, “we would note competitive challenges in the CPU space at Intel in the near-medium term.”

So far, progress has been gradual. Intel 3-based server chips represented only about 20% of unit volume in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the company’s next meaningful inflection point may not arrive until Coral Rapids, expected in the second half of 2027 or later. According to the analyst, earlier-generation products, such as Diamond Rapids, may not be enough on their own to materially shift the competitive landscape.

While Buchalter acknowledges recent progress, he still finds the valuation difficult, with Intel trading at around 63x 2027 EPS, which is nearly four times NVIDIA’s multiple.

To this end, Buchalter assigns Intel shares a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating, although his price target goes from $50 to $60. However, that figure sits 8% below the current share price. (To watch Buchalter’s track record, click here)

Most analysts agree with that stance; based on a mix of 24 Holds, 6 Buys and 4 Sells, the stock claims a Hold consensus rating. The average price target stands at $51.83, implying the shares are overvalued by 20%. (See Intel stock forecast)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.