Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report fiscal second-quarter results on August 26. With shares at $225.30, the options market is pricing in a 6.99% move, or about $15.74, after earnings. The expected move is much larger than Nvidia’s average post-earnings move over the past four quarters. This indicates that options traders may be pricing in a bigger reaction than the stock has typically delivered. Still, strong guidance or an upbeat outlook could push shares beyond the expected range.
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How This Compares With Past Earnings Moves
Options-implied moves show how much traders expect a stock to swing. They do not predict whether shares will rise or fall. Nvidia has averaged a post-earnings move of about 2.8% over the past four quarters. That is well below the current 6.99% implied move.
The stock fell after each of its last four earnings reports. Shares dropped 5.46% after the Q4 FY26 report. They also fell 3.15% after Q3 FY26 results. The declines were smaller after the other two reports. Nvidia fell 0.79% after Q2 FY26 and 1.77% after Q1 FY27.
This record shows the challenge facing Nvidia ahead of earnings. Beating estimates may not be enough to lift the stock. Investors may want results and guidance that exceed high market expectations.
What Will Matter Most for Nvidia After Earnings?
Wall Street expects Nvidia to report $2.08 in earnings per share, nearly double the year-ago figure of $1.05. Revenue is expected to reach about $91.90 billion, up roughly 97% year over year.
Still, the outlook may matter more than the headline results. Investors will want to see strong demand for Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin platform. They will also look for signs that Nvidia can keep up with demand for its GPUs.
Gross margins will be another area to watch. Any pressure on margins could weigh on the stock even if Nvidia beats estimates. Demand from major cloud companies will also be important. Nvidia relies on these companies to buy its AI chips for their data centers. Strong demand from them would support Nvidia’s growth.
Scenario Map
Bull Case: Nvidia beats earnings and revenue estimates and gives strong guidance. Better-than-expected Rubin demand could also lift investor confidence. In that case, shares could move toward or above the $241.04 implied upper range.
Bear Case: Nvidia posts a weaker outlook or sees slower demand from major customers. Concerns about margins, supply, or competition could also weigh on shares. In that case, the stock could move toward the $209.56 implied lower range.
Is NVDA Stock a Buy Now?
On TipRanks, NVDA has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 36 Buys and one Hold rating. The average Nvidia price target of $309.94 implies 37.6% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, NVDA shares have gained 21%.
