Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) Risk Analysis

If any of our aircraft were to be involved in a significant accident or if our property or operations were to be affected by a significant natural catastrophe or other event, we could be exposed to material liability or loss. If insurance markets harden due to other airline global incidents, general aviation incidents or other economic factors, we could be unable to obtain sufficient insurance (including aviation hull and liability insurance and property and business interruption coverage) to cover such liabilities or losses, our business could be materially adversely affected. We currently obtain war risk insurance coverage (terrorism insurance) as part of our commercial aviation hull and liability policy, and additional excess third-party war risk insurance through the commercial aviation war risk market. Our current war risk insurance from commercial underwriters excludes nuclear, radiological and certain other events. The global insurance market for aviation-related risks has been faced with significant losses, resulting in substantial tightening in insurance markets with reduced capacity and increased prices. If we are unable to obtain adequate third-party hull and liability or third-party war risk (terrorism) insurance or if an event not covered by our insurance were to take place, our business could be materially adversely affected.

The cost of aircraft fuel is highly volatile and is one of our largest individual operating expenses, accounting for approximately 24% and 27% of our operating expenses for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. High fuel prices or increases in fuel costs (or in the price of crude oil) could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition, including as a result of legacy network airlines and LCCs adapting more rapidly or effectively to higher fuel prices through new-technology aircraft that is more fuel efficient than our aircraft. Over the past several years, the price of aircraft fuel has fluctuated substantially and prices continue to be highly volatile. In addition, prolonged low fuel prices could limit our ability to differentiate our product and low fares from those of the legacy network airlines and LCCs, as prolonged low fuel prices could enable such carriers to, among other things, substantially decrease their costs, fly longer stages or utilize older aircraft. Our business is also dependent on the availability of aircraft fuel (or crude oil), which is not predictable. Weather-related events, natural disasters, terrorism, wars (including as a result of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict), supply chain disruptions, political disruption or instability involving oil-producing countries, changes in governmental or cartel policy concerning crude oil or aircraft fuel production, labor strikes or other events affecting refinery production, transportation, taxes or marketing, environmental concerns, market manipulation, price speculation, changes in currency exchange rates and other unpredictable events may drive actual or perceived fuel supply shortages. Shortages in the availability of, or increases in demand for, crude oil in general, other crude oil-based fuel derivatives and aircraft fuel in particular could result in increased fuel prices and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We may not be able to increase ticket prices sufficiently to cover increased fuel costs, particularly when fuel prices rise quickly. We sell a significant number of tickets to passengers well in advance of travel, and, as a result, fares sold for future travel may not reflect increased fuel costs. In addition, our ability to increase ticket prices to offset an increase in fuel costs is limited by the competitive nature of the airline industry and the price sensitivity associated with air travel, particularly leisure travel, and any increases in fares may reduce the general demand for air travel. Additionally, our Cargo and Charter customers may choose to refuse fuel pass-through contracts, which could drive down the profitability of those agreements. From time-to-time, we may enter into fuel derivative contracts in order to mitigate the risk to our business from future volatility in fuel prices, but such contracts may not fully protect us from all related risks. In general, our Charter and Cargo operations have pass-through provisions for fuel costs, and as such we do not hedge our fuel requirements for that portion of our business. As of December 31, 2024, we had no outstanding fuel derivative contracts.

Airlines are subject to extensive regulatory and legal compliance requirements, both domestically and internationally, that impose significant costs. Compliance with and changes in the laws, regulations, orders, rulings and guidance applicable to the airline industry may increase our costs, which could have a material adverse effect on our business. In addition, the TSA imposes security procedures and requirements on U.S. airports and airlines serving U.S. airports, some of which are funded by a security fee imposed on passengers and collected by airlines, which impedes our ability to stimulate demand through low fares. We cannot forecast what additional security and safety requirements may be imposed in the future or the costs or revenue impact that would be associated with complying with such requirements. Furthermore, the DoD continues to issue new IT systems security requirements which require expenditures in order to bring our systems into compliance. Our ability to operate as an airline is dependent on our obtaining and maintaining authorizations issued to us by the DOT and the FAA. The FAA has the authority to issue mandatory orders relating to, among other things, operating aircraft, the grounding of aircraft, maintenance and inspection of aircraft, installation of new safety-related items, and removal and replacement of aircraft parts that have failed or may fail in the future. A decision by the FAA to ground, or require time-consuming inspections of or maintenance on, our aircraft, for any reason, could negatively affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. Federal law requires that air carriers operating Scheduled Service be continuously "fit, willing and able" to provide the services for which they are licensed. Our "fitness" is monitored by the DOT, which considers managerial competence, operations, finances, and compliance record. In addition, under federal law, we must be a U.S. citizen (as determined under applicable law). Please see "Business-Foreign Ownership." While the DOT has seldom revoked a carrier's certification for lack of fitness, such an occurrence would render it impossible for us to continue operating as an airline. The DOT may also institute investigations or administrative proceedings against airlines for violations of regulations. In the last several years, Congress has passed laws and the FAA, DOT and TSA have issued regulations, orders, rulings and guidance relating to consumer protections and to the operation, safety, and security of airlines that have required significant expenditures. We expect to continue to incur expenses in connection with complying with such laws and government regulations, orders, rulings and guidance. Additional laws, regulations, taxes and increased airport rates and charges have been proposed from time-to-time that could significantly increase the cost of airline operations or reduce the demand for air travel. International routes are regulated by air transport agreements and related agreements between the United States and foreign governments. Our ability to operate international routes is subject to change because the applicable agreements between the United States and foreign governments may be amended from time to time. Our access to new international markets may be limited by the applicable air transport agreements between the United States and foreign governments and our ability to obtain the necessary authority from the United States and foreign governments to fly the international routes. In addition, our operations in foreign countries are subject to regulation by foreign governments and our business may be affected by changes in law and future actions taken by such governments, including granting or withdrawal of government approvals and airport slots and restrictions on competitive practices. We are subject to numerous foreign regulations in the countries outside the United States where we currently provide service. If we are not able to comply with this complex regulatory regime, our business could be significantly harmed. Please see "Business-Government Regulation." Our international business also exposes us to trade and economic sanctions and other restrictions imposed by the United States or other governments or organizations. The U.S. Departments of Justice, Commerce, State and Treasury, and other foreign authorities have a broad range of civil and criminal penalties they may seek to impose against corporations and individuals for violations of economic sanctions laws, export control laws, the FCPA and other federal statutes and regulations, including the International Traffic in Arms Regulations and those established by the OFAC, and similar or more restrictive foreign laws, rules and regulations, which may also apply to us. Under these laws and regulations, the government may require export licenses, or impose restrictions that would require modifications to business practices, including cessation of business activities in sanctioned countries or with sanctioned persons or entities, and modifications to compliance programs, which may increase compliance costs. Failure to implement changes may subject us to fines, penalties and other sanctions. We emphasize compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in all jurisdictions where we operate and have implemented and continue to implement and refresh policies, procedures and certain ongoing training of our employees, third-party providers and partners with regard to business ethics and key legal requirements; however, we cannot assure that our employees, third-party providers or partners will adhere to our code of ethics and other policies. In the event we believe or have reason to believe our employees, third-party providers or partners have or may have violated applicable laws or regulations, we may incur investigation costs, potential penalties and other related costs. Changes to law, regulations or government policy that could have a material impact on us in the future include, but are not limited to, infrastructure renewal programs; changes to operating and maintenance requirements; foreign and domestic changes in customs, immigration and security policy and requirements that impede travel into or out of the United States; modifications to international trade policy, including withdrawing from trade agreements and imposing tariffs; changes to consumer protection laws; changes to public health policy; changes to financial legislation, including the partial or full repeal of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010; public company reporting requirements; environmental regulation, including new environmental, social and governance disclosures required by the SEC; and antitrust enforcement. Any such changes could make it more difficult and/or more expensive for us to obtain new aircraft or engines and parts to maintain existing aircraft or engines or make it less profitable or prevent us from flying to or from some of the destinations we currently serve.

Our service is concentrated around our hub in MSP and our business is impacted by economic and geophysical factors of this region. We maintain a large presence in MSP. For example, approximately 94% of 2024 Scheduled Service capacity, as measured by ASMs, had MSP as either their origin or destination. Flight operations in Minneapolis can face extreme weather challenges in all seasons, but especially in the winter which at times has resulted in severe disruptions in our operation and the incurrence of material costs as a consequence of such disruptions. Our business could be further harmed by an increase in the amount of direct competition we face in the Minneapolis market or by continued or increased congestion, delays or cancellations. For instance, MSP is also a significant hub for Delta Air Lines. If we were to experience increased competition from LCCs or ULCCs, or increased competition on low-fare products from Delta airlines or another legacy network airline in the Minneapolis market, our business, results of operations and prospects could be materially adversely affected. Our business would also be negatively impacted by any circumstances causing a reduction in demand for air transportation in the Minneapolis area, such as adverse changes in local economic conditions, local regulations and/or mandates, health concerns, adverse weather conditions, negative public perception of Minneapolis, riots, social unrest, terrorist attacks or significant price or tax increases linked to increases in airport access costs and fees imposed on passengers. We currently operate out of Terminal 2 at MSP. Our access to use our existing gates and other facilities in Terminal 2 is not guaranteed. We cannot assure you that our continued use of our facilities at MSP will occur on acceptable terms with respect to operations and cost of operations, or at all, or that our ongoing use of these facilities will not include additional or increased fees.

Inflation risk is the risk that the value of assets or income will be worth less in the future as inflation decreases the value of money. In recent years, inflation increased throughout the U.S. economy. In response, the Federal Reserve raised certain benchmark interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. Inflation can adversely affect us by resulting in increased costs of goods and services, including those we use in our operations, which would increase our expenses. In addition, our customers could also be affected by inflation, which could have a negative impact on demand for air travel. If the U.S. economy continues to feel the effects of inflationary pressures, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected.