Piper Sandler (PIPR) Risk Analysis

Concentration of risk increases the potential for significant losses in our sales and trading, alternative asset management, credit underwriting and syndication platform, and underwriting businesses. We have committed capital to these businesses, and we may take substantial positions in particular types of securities or issuers. This concentration of risk may cause us to suffer losses even when economic and market conditions are generally favorable for our competitors. Further, disruptions in the credit markets can make it difficult to hedge exposures effectively and economically.

Even though we work to represent our clients at every stage of their lifecycle, we are typically retained on a short-term, engagement-by-engagement basis in connection with specific advisory or capital markets transactions. As a consequence, the timing of when fees are earned varies, and, therefore, our financial results from advisory and capital markets activities may experience volatility quarter to quarter based on equity market conditions as well as the macroeconomic business cycle more broadly. In particular, our revenues related to advisory transactions tend to be more unpredictable from quarter to quarter due to the one-time nature of the transaction and the size of the fee. As a result, high levels of revenue in one quarter will not necessarily be predictive of continued high levels of revenue in any subsequent period. If we are unable to generate a substantial number of new engagements and generate fees from the successful completion of those transactions, our business and results of operations could be adversely affected.

Maintaining our reputation is critical to attracting and maintaining clients, customers, investors, and employees. If we fail to deal with, or appear to fail to deal with, issues that may give rise to reputational risk, such failure or appearance of failure could have a material adverse effect on our business and stock price. These issues include appropriately dealing with potential conflicts of interest, legal and regulatory requirements, perceptions of our environmental, social and governance practices or business selection, ethical issues, money laundering, cybersecurity, and the proper identification of the strategic, market, human capital, liquidity, credit, operational, legal and regulatory risks inherent in our business and products.

We typically transact thousands of securities trades on a daily basis across multiple markets. Our data and transaction processing, financial, accounting and other technology and operating systems are essential to this task. A system malfunction (due to hardware failure, capacity overload, security incident, data corruption, or similar event) or mistake made relating to the processing of transactions could result in financial loss, liability to clients, regulatory intervention, reputational damage and constraints on our ability to grow. We operate under a fully disclosed model for all of our client clearing activities and for all of our securities inventories with the exception of convertible securities. In a fully disclosed model, we act as an introducing broker for most customer transactions and rely on a clearing broker dealer to handle clearance and settlement of our customers' securities transactions. The clearing services provided by our clearing broker dealer, Pershing, are critical to our business operations, and similar to other important outsourced operations, any failure by the clearing agent with respect to the services we rely on it to provide could significantly disrupt and negatively impact our operations and financial results. We also contract with third parties for market data services, which constantly broadcast news, quotes, analytics and other relevant information to our employees, as well as other critical data processing activities. In the event that any of these service providers fails to adequately perform such services or the relationship between that service provider and us is terminated, we may experience a significant disruption in our operations, including our ability to timely and accurately process transactions or maintain complete and accurate records of those transactions. Adapting or developing our technology systems to meet new regulatory requirements, client needs, geographic expansion and industry demands also is critical for our business. The introduction of new technologies presents new challenges on a regular basis. We have an ongoing need to upgrade and improve our various technology systems, including our data and transaction processing, financial, accounting, risk management, compliance, and trading systems. This need could present operational issues or require significant capital spending. It also may require us to make additional investments in technology systems and may require us to reevaluate the current value or expected useful lives of our technology systems, which could negatively impact our results of operations. A disruption in the infrastructure that supports our business due to fire, natural disaster, health emergency (e.g., a pandemic), power or communication failure, act of terrorism or war may affect our ability to service and interact with our clients. If we are not able to implement contingency plans effectively, any such disruption could harm our results of operations.

Historically, the market for qualified employees within the financial services industry has been marked by intense competition, and the performance of our business may suffer to the extent we are unable to attract, retain, and develop productive employees, given the relatively small size of our company and our employee base compared to some of our competitors and the geographic locations in which we operate. The primary sources of revenue in each of our business lines are fees earned on advisory and underwriting transactions and customer accounts managed by our employees, who have historically been recruited by other firms and in certain cases are able to take their client relationships with them when they change firms. In some areas of our business, a small number of employees are responsible for producing a significant amount of revenue, and the loss of any of these employees could adversely affect our results of operations. Further, recruiting and retention success often depends on the ability to deliver competitive compensation, and we may be at a disadvantage to some competitors given our size and financial resources. Our inability or unwillingness to meet compensation needs or demands may result in the loss of some of our professionals or the inability to recruit additional professionals at compensation levels that are within our target range for compensation and benefits expense. Our ability to retain and recruit also may be hindered if we limit our aggregate annual compensation and benefits expense as a percentage of annual net revenues. A vibrant and ethical corporate culture is critical to ensuring that our employees put our clients' interests first and are able to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest, while also creating an environment in which each of our employees feels empowered to develop and pursue their full potential. Our expectations for our corporate culture and ethics are instilled and maintained by the "tone at the top" set by our management and board of directors. Lapses in our corporate culture could lead to reputational damage or employee loss, either of which could adversely affect our results of operations. Our business success depends in large part on the strategic decisions made by our leadership team, and the business plans developed and implemented by our senior business leaders. Our ability to identify, develop, and retain future senior business leaders, and our ability to develop and implement successful succession plans for our leadership team and other senior business leaders, is critical to our future success and results of operations.

We engage in a variety of activities in which we commit or invest our own capital, including underwriting and alternative asset management. In our role as underwriter for equity and fixed income securities, we commit to purchase securities from the issuer or one or more holders of the issuer's securities, and we then sell those securities to other investors or into the public markets, as applicable. Our underwriting activities, including bought deal transactions and equity block trading activities, expose us to the risk of loss if the price of the security falls below the price we purchased the security before we are able to sell all of the securities that we purchased. For example, as an underwriter, or, with respect to equity securities, a block positioner, we may commit to purchasing securities from an issuer or one or more holders of the issuer's securities without having found purchasers for some or all of the securities. In those instances, we may find that we are unable to sell the securities at a price equal to or above the price at which we purchased the securities, or with respect to certain securities, at a price sufficient to cover our hedges. With respect to alternative asset management, our ability to withdraw our capital from these investments may be limited, and we may not be able to realize our investment objectives by sale or disposition at attractive prices, increasing our risk of losses. Our joint venture entities or other alternative asset management entities that underwrite and syndicate client debt may hold a portion of such debt after syndication, and our invested capital is exposed to a risk of loss to the extent that the debt is ultimately not repaid. Our results from these activities may vary from quarter to quarter. We may incur significant losses from our underwriting and alternative asset management activities due to equity or fixed income market fluctuations and volatility from quarter to quarter, or from a deterioration in specific business subsectors or the economy more generally. In addition, we may engage in hedging transactions that, if not successful, could result in losses, and the hedges we purchase to counterbalance market rate changes in certain inventory positions are not perfectly matched to the positions being hedged, which could result in losses.

Economic and market conditions have had, and will continue to have, a direct and material impact on our results of operations and financial condition because performance in the financial services industry is heavily influenced by the overall strength of economic conditions and financial market activity. For example: - In 2023, our business continued to be impacted by the U.S. Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation. Although market volatility trended lower, equity indices saw a significant rally as the pace of inflation fell, and the U.S. economy remained relatively resilient, overall financial market activity remained subdued compared to historical levels. During the first half of the year, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates four times, which brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high. These higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and tightened lending standards following two high-profile bank failures in the first quarter of 2023 contributed to macroeconomic uncertainty and muted client activity across our businesses, including advisory, equity capital markets, fixed income institutional brokerage, and public finance. We believe that the trajectory of market conditions in 2024 will be dependent on several factors, including a continued moderation of the pace of inflation, whether the U.S. Federal Reserve is able to cut interest rates, whether the U.S. economy enters a recession and its magnitude and duration, and the effects of macroeconomic or political uncertainty in the U.S. or abroad. Widespread concern or doubts in the market about U.S. or global economic conditions, the potential for financial contagion or widespread corporate or government defaults, the U.S. presidential election, the possibility of the broader outbreak of armed conflict in the Middle East or Eastern Europe, geopolitical tensions concerning Taiwan, or the pace, impact, or effectiveness of the actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve with respect to interest rates, or the efficacy or adequacy of government measures enacted to support the U.S. and global economy, could erode the outlook for macroeconomic conditions, economic growth, and business confidence, which would negatively impact our businesses. - Our equities investment banking revenues from our advisory and equity capital markets businesses are directly related to macroeconomic conditions and corresponding financial market activity. Our equities investment banking business overall, but especially our capital markets business, benefits from cycles of strong financial market activity and company valuations. As an example, a significant portion of our equities investment banking revenues in recent years has been derived from advisory and capital markets engagements in our focus sectors and from financial sponsor clients, and activity in these areas is highly correlated to market conditions and the macroeconomic environment. During periods of heightened economic uncertainty, financial market activity can significantly decline, as we experienced in 2023, and our business may suffer reduced revenues as a result. If the outlook for macroeconomic conditions in 2024 were to remain depressed, or deteriorate further, the level of financial market activity could continue to decrease, which would reduce our equities investment banking revenues more generally. In addition, market volatility or uncertainty related to a decline in the U.S. or global macroeconomic outlook could cause financial market activity to decrease, which would also negatively affect our equities investment banking revenues. Global macroeconomic conditions and U.S. financial markets also remain vulnerable to the potential risks posed by exogenous shocks, which could include, among other things, political or social unrest or economic uncertainty in the U.S. and the European Union, including the potential for financial contagion or widespread corporate or government defaults, renewed concern about China's economy or financial sector, the wider outbreak of armed conflict in the Middle East or Eastern Europe, geopolitical tensions concerning Taiwan, and complications involving terrorism and armed conflicts around the world, or other challenges to global trade. More generally, because our business is closely correlated to the macroeconomic outlook, a significant deterioration in that outlook or an exogenous shock would likely have an immediate and significant negative impact on our equities investment banking business and our overall results of operations. It is difficult to predict the economic and market conditions for 2024, which are dependent upon global and U.S. economic conditions and geopolitical events globally. Our smaller scale and the cyclical nature of the economy and the financial services industry leads to volatility in our financial results, including our operating margins, compensation ratios, business mix, and revenue and expense levels. Our financial performance may be limited by the fixed nature of certain expenses, the impact from unanticipated losses or expenses during the year, our business mix, and the inability to scale back costs in a timeframe to match decreases in revenue-related changes in market and economic conditions. As a result, our financial results may vary significantly from quarter to quarter and year to year.

When we conduct business outside the U.S., we are subject to risks, including the risk that we will be unable to provide effective operational support to these business activities, the risk of noncompliance with foreign laws and regulations, and the general economic and political conditions in countries where we conduct business, which may differ significantly from those in the U.S. For example, the effect of Brexit is still developing and could require us to obtain additional regulatory licenses or impose additional restrictions on our ability to conduct business in Europe. In addition, our international operations require compliance with anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws, including the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the U.K. Bribery Act 2010. These laws generally prohibit companies and their intermediaries from engaging in bribery or making other improper payments to foreign officials for the purpose of obtaining or retaining business or gaining an unfair business advantage. While our employees and agents are required to comply with these laws, we cannot ensure that our internal controls policies and procedures will always protect us from intentional, reckless or negligent acts committed by our employees or agents, which acts could subject our company to fines or other regulatory consequences that could disrupt our operations and negatively impact our results of operations.