Nelnet (NNI) Risk Analysis

The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make critical accounting estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, income, revenue, and expenses during the reporting periods. Incorrect estimates and assumptions by management could adversely affect our reported amounts of assets, liabilities, income, revenue, and expenses during the reporting periods. If we make incorrect assumptions or estimates, our reported financial results may be over or understated, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Prepayment risk Higher rates of prepayments of student loans, including consolidations by the Department through the Federal Direct Loan Program or private refinancing programs, reduce our interest income. The Higher Education Act allows borrowers to prepay FFEL Program loans at any time without penalty. Prepayments have resulted and may continue to result from consolidations of student loans by the Department through the Federal Direct Loan Program or by a lending institution through a private education or unsecured consumer loan, which historically tend to occur more frequently in low interest rate environments; from borrower defaults on federally insured loans, which will result in the receipt of a guaranty payment; and from voluntary full or partial prepayments; among other things. If the federal government or the Department initiate additional loan forgiveness or cancellation, other repayment options or plans, or consolidation loan programs, such initiatives could further increase prepayments and reduce interest income. Even if a broad debt cancellation program only applied to student loans held by the Department, such program could result in a significant increase in consolidations of FFELP loans to Federal Direct Loan Program loans and a corresponding increase in prepayments with respect to our FFELP loan portfolio, and also a decrease in our third-party FFELP loan servicing revenues. Since late 2021, we have experienced accelerated run-off of our FFELP loan portfolio due to FFELP borrowers consolidating their loans into Federal Direct Loan Program loans as a result of initiatives offered by the Department for FFELP borrowers to qualify for loan forgiveness under various programs and the continued extension of the CARES Act payment pause on Department held loans. The CARES Act suspended federal student loan payments and interest accruals on all loans owned by the Department beginning in March 2020 and was extended multiple times through August 2023. The Department announced a broad based student debt relief plan in August 2022, which provided targeted student debt cancellation to borrowers with loans held by the Department with unconditional loan cancellation in amounts of up to $20,000 for eligible borrowers who received a Pell Grant, or of up to $10,000 for eligible borrowers who did not receive a Pell Grant. Federal courts blocked implementation of the Department's broad based student debt relief plan and on June 30, 2023, the Supreme Court struck down the Department's plan. While such forgiveness plan has been invalidated, in February 2024, the Biden-Harris Administration (the "Administration") proposed regulations that would allow the Department to cancel student debt for borrowers facing hardship related to their student loans. The proposed regulations enumerate numerous factors to determine hardship, including household income, total debt balances, and essential expenses, like healthcare and childcare. Under the proposed regulations, the Department could automatically cancel all or part of the student loans of borrowers who the Department determines, through data in its possession, are experiencing hardship such that their student loans are at least 80% likely to be in default within two years. The proposed regulations allow for the Department to provide additional student debt cancellation to borrowers experiencing hardship through an application or an automatic process. In addition, on July 10, 2023, the Department issued final regulations on income-driven repayment plans for Federal Direct loans. Eligible FFELP borrowers can access the new changes by consolidating their loans into the Federal Direct Loan Program. The new regulations are effective July 1, 2024; however, the Department has elected early implementation for some features starting June 30, 2023. The regulations provide a lower monthly loan payment on a Direct loan by decreasing discretionary income, decreasing the percentage of discretionary income that must be paid toward a Direct loan, and providing the option for married borrowers to exclude their spouse's income from being factored by filing a separate tax return. Other changes provide for the elimination of accrued interest that is not covered by the monthly payment amount, provide credit towards loan forgiveness that counts certain periods of deferment and forbearance, a shorter loan forgiveness period for borrowers with an original principal balance less than or equal to $12,000, and credit toward loan forgiveness for eligible payments on a Direct or FFELP loan that is repaid by a Direct Consolidation loan. This new income-driven repayment plan may increase consolidation activity in the future as FFELP borrowers consolidate their loans into the Federal Direct Loan Program in order to be eligible for the new income-driven repayment plan. We cannot predict how or what programs or policies will be impacted by any actions that the Administration, Congress, or the federal government may take, the timing of when such programs or policies may be implemented, and/or the ultimate outcome thereof. In addition, any changes to government programs or policies may be legally challenged, which may affect the extent and timing of these changes and the resulting impact they may have on our businesses, financial condition, or results of operations. New or modified Government programs or policies may lead to increased call volumes, and have a negative effect on the level of service we are able to provide. Sustained higher FFEL Program loan prepayments and/or a significant increase in FFEL Program loan prepayments could have a material adverse impact in future periods on net interest income in our AGM segment, FFELP servicing revenue in our LSS segment, investment advisory services revenue earned by WRCM on FFELP loan asset-backed securities under management, and interest income earned on our FFELP loan asset-backed securities investments. Some variability in prepayment levels is expected, although extraordinary or extended increases in prepayment rates could have a material adverse effect on our revenues, cash flows, profitability, and business outlook, and, as a result, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations. Credit risk - loans Future losses due to defaults on loans held by us present credit risk which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, or results of operations. Our estimated allowance for loan losses is based on periodic evaluations of the credit risk in our loan portfolios, including the consideration of the following factors (as applicable), for each of our loan portfolios: loans in repayment versus those in nonpaying status; delinquency status; type of private education or consumer loan program; trends in defaults in the portfolio based on internal and industry data; past experience; trends in federally insured student loan claims rejected for payment by guarantors; changes to federal student loan programs; the FICO scores of borrowers; current macroeconomic factors, including unemployment rates, gross domestic product, and consumer price index; and other relevant qualitative factors. The vast majority (93.6%) of our student loan portfolio is federally guaranteed, which limits our loss exposure on the outstanding balance of our federally guaranteed portfolio. Our private education and consumer loans are unsecured, with neither a government nor a private insurance guarantee. Accordingly, we bear the full risk of loss on these loans if the borrower and co-borrower, if applicable, default. We are actively expanding our acquisition of private education and consumer loan portfolios, which increases our exposure to credit risk. If future defaults on loans held by us are higher than anticipated, which could result from a variety of factors such as downturns in the economy, regulatory or operational changes, and other unforeseen future trends, or actual performance is significantly worse than currently estimated, our estimate of the allowance for loan losses and the related provision for loan losses in our consolidated statements of income would be materially adversely affected. Credit risk - beneficial interest in loan securitizations We own partial ownership in consumer, private education, and federally insured student loan third-party securitizations that are classified as "beneficial interest in loan securitizations" and included in "investments and notes receivable" on our consolidated balance sheets. These residual interests were acquired by us or have been received as consideration as the result of selling portfolios of loans to unrelated third parties who securitized such loans. As of the latest remittance reports filed by the various trusts prior to or as of December 31, 2023, the Company's ownership correlates to approximately $1.76 billion of loans included in these securitizations. As of December 31, 2023, the investment balance on our consolidated balance sheet of its beneficial interest in loan securitizations was $225.1 million. Our partial ownership percentage in each loan securitization grants us the right to receive the corresponding percentage of cash flows generated by the securitization. The cash flows generated from the securitizations are highly subject to credit risk (defaults). If defaults are higher than management's current estimate, future cash flows and investment interest income (earnings) from these securitizations would be adversely impacted. In addition, the value of the current investment balance may not be recoverable, resulting in an adverse impact to our operating results. Interest rate risk - basis and repricing risk We are exposed to interest rate risk in the form of basis risk and repricing risk because the interest rate characteristics of our loan assets do not always match the interest rate characteristics of the funding for those assets. We fund the majority of the FFELP student loan assets in our AGM segment with one-month or three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indexed floating rate securities. Meanwhile, the interest earned on our FFELP student loan assets is indexed to 30-day average SOFR, three-month commercial paper, and three-month Treasury bill rates. The differing interest rate characteristics of our loan assets versus the liabilities funding these assets result in basis risk, which impacts the excess spread earned on our loans. We also face repricing risk due to the timing of the interest rate resets on our liabilities, which may occur as infrequently as once a quarter, in contrast to the timing of the interest rate resets on our assets, which generally occur daily. In a declining interest rate environment, this may cause our variable student loan spread to compress, while in a rising interest rate environment, it may cause the variable spread to increase. As of December 31, 2023, our AGM segment had $10.9 billion, $0.4 billion, and $0.4 billion of FFELP loans indexed to the 30-day average SOFR, three-month commercial paper, and three-month Treasury bill rate, respectively, all of which reset daily, and $2.8 billion of debt indexed to 90-day SOFR, which resets quarterly, and $6.8 billion of debt indexed to 30-day SOFR, which resets monthly. While these indices are all short term in nature with rate movements that are highly correlated over a longer period of time, the indices' historically high level of correlation may be disrupted in the future due to capital market dislocations or other factors not within our control. In such circumstances, our business, financial condition, or results of operations could be materially adversely affected. Interest rate risk - loss of floor income FFELP loans originated prior to April 1, 2006 generally earn interest at the higher of the borrower rate, which is fixed over a period of time, or a floating rate based on the Special Allowance Payments (SAP) formula set by the Department. The SAP rate is based on an applicable index plus a fixed spread that depends on loan type, origination date, and repayment status. We generally finance our student loan portfolio with variable rate debt. In low and/or certain declining interest rate environments, when the fixed borrower rate is higher than the SAP rate, these student loans earn at a fixed rate while the interest on the variable rate debt typically continues to reflect the low and/or declining interest rates. In these interest rate environments, we may earn additional spread income that we refer to as floor income. Depending on the type of loan and when it originated, the borrower rate is either fixed to term or is reset to an annual rate each July 1. As a result, for loans where the borrower rate is fixed to term, we may earn floor income for an extended period of time, which we refer to as fixed rate floor income, and for those loans where the borrower rate is reset annually on July 1, we may earn floor income to the next reset date, which we refer to as variable rate floor income. For the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022, and 2021, we earned $2.2 million, $57.4 million, and $142.6 million, respectively, of gross fixed rate floor income. The decrease in the amount of fixed rate floor income earned by us was due to an increase in interest rates. Absent the use of derivative instruments, a rise in interest rates reduces the amount of floor income received and has a negative impact on earnings due to interest margin compression caused by increased financing costs, until such time as the federally insured loans earn interest at a variable rate in accordance with their SAP formulas. In higher interest rate environments, where the interest rate rises above the borrower rate and fixed rate loans effectively convert to variable rate loans, the impact of the rate fluctuations is reduced. Based on current interest rates, we do not anticipate earning a significant amount of fixed rate floor income in the foreseeable future. For example, during the fourth quarter of 2023, we earned gross fixed rate floor income of $0.2 million. Interest rate risk - use of derivatives We utilize derivative instruments to manage interest rate sensitivity. See note 5 of the notes to consolidated financial statements included in this report for additional information on derivatives used by us to manage interest rate risk. Our Non-Nelnet Bank derivative instruments are intended as economic hedges but do not qualify for hedge accounting. Our Nelnet Bank derivative instruments are structured so that each is economically effective; however, because the derivatives are hedging intercompany deposits, the derivative instruments are not eligible for hedge accounting in the consolidated financial statements. Consequently, the "mark-to-market" change in fair value of our derivative instruments is included in our operating results. Changes or shifts in the forward yield curve can significantly impact and have impacted the valuation of our derivatives, and in turn can significantly impact and have impacted our results of operations. Developing an effective strategy for dealing with movements in interest rates is complex, and no strategy can completely insulate us from risks associated with such fluctuations. Because many of our non-Nelnet Bank derivatives are not balance guaranteed to a particular pool of student loans and we may not elect to fully hedge our risk on a notional and/or duration basis, we are subject to the risk of being under or over hedged, which could result in material losses. In addition, our interest rate risk management activities could expose us to substantial mark-to-market losses if interest rates move in a materially different way than was expected based on the environment when the derivatives were entered into. As a result, our economic hedging activities may not effectively manage our interest rate sensitivity, may not have the desired beneficial impact on our results of operations or financial condition, and may cause volatility in our results of operations or have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, or results of operations. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires over-the-counter derivative transactions to be executed through an exchange or central clearinghouse. The clearing rules require us to post substantial amounts of liquid collateral when executing new derivative instruments, which could negatively impact our liquidity and capital resources and may prevent or limit us from utilizing derivative instruments to manage interest rate sensitivity and risks. However, the clearing requirements reduce counterparty risk associated with over-the-counter derivative instruments. For derivatives not required to be executed through an exchange or central clearinghouse ("non-centrally cleared derivatives,") we are exposed to credit risk. All of Nelnet Bank's derivatives are non-centrally cleared derivatives. We attempt to manage credit risk by entering into transactions with high-quality counterparties. When the fair value of a non-centrally cleared derivative is positive (an asset on our balance sheet), this generally indicates that the counterparty owes us if the derivative was settled. If the counterparty fails to perform, credit risk with such counterparty is equal to the extent of the fair value gain in the derivative less any collateral held by us. If we were unable to collect from a counterparty, we would have a loss equal to the amount at which the derivative is recorded on the consolidated balance sheet. When the fair value of the derivative is negative (a liability on our balance sheet), we would owe the counterparty if the derivative was settled. If the negative fair value of derivatives with a counterparty exceeds a specified threshold, we may have to make a collateral deposit with the counterparty. As of December 31, 2023, Nelnet Bank had a total notional amount of $140.0 million of derivatives outstanding, and the gross fair value of such derivatives in an asset position was $0.5 million and in a liability position was $2.0 million. Interest rate movements have an impact on the amount of payments we are required to settle with our clearinghouse on a daily basis and collateral we are required to deposit with our derivative instrument counterparties. We attempt to manage market risk associated with interest rates by establishing and monitoring limits as to the types and degree of risk that may be undertaken. However, if interest rates move materially and negatively impact the fair value of our derivative portfolio or if we enter into additional derivatives for which the fair value subsequently becomes negative, we could be required to pay a significant amount of variation margin to our clearinghouse and/or collateral to our derivative instrument counterparties. These payments could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, or capital resources. Interest rate risk - replacement of LIBOR as a benchmark rate On June 30, 2023, the LIBOR administrator ceased publication (on a representative basis) of all USD LIBOR rates. As of June 30, 2023, the interest earned on a principal amount of $12.0 billion of our FFELP student loan assets held by our AGM segment was indexed to one-month LIBOR, and the interest paid on a principal amount of $10.5 billion of our FFELP student loan asset-backed debt securities to fund such loans was indexed to one-month or three-month LIBOR. In addition, the majority of our derivative financial instrument transactions used to manage LIBOR interest rate risks were indexed to LIBOR. We relied on fallback provisions to transition financial contracts from LIBOR to SOFR. The SAP formula for our FFELP loans, the majority of which were indexed to one-month LIBOR, were not able to be modified without legislative action. On March 15, 2022, the Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act (the LIBOR Act) was signed into law. The LIBOR Act provides that for contracts that contain no fallback provision or contain fallback provisions that do not identify a specific USD LIBOR benchmark replacement (including the SAP formula for FFELP loans), a benchmark replacement based on SOFR will automatically replace the USD LIBOR benchmark in the contract after June 30, 2023. Following the enactment and implementation of the LIBOR Act, all of our financial instruments which were indexed to USD LIBOR transitioned to SOFR after June 30, 2023. Specifically, after June 30, 2023, the SAP formula for FFELP loans transitioned to 30-day average SOFR and our LIBOR-indexed FFELP asset-backed debt securities also transitioned to a short-term SOFR index. In addition, our LIBOR-indexed derivatives transitioned to the fallback rate (SOFR) as defined in the individual agreements and/or published industry guidelines, as applicable. The market transition away from the previous LIBOR framework could result in significant changes to the interest rate characteristics of our prior LIBOR-indexed assets and funding for those assets. We are still uncertain as to the long-term relationship between overnight SOFR and Term SOFR as they are new indices, and our assumptions with respect to this relationship may evolve over time. To the extent that the spread between these indices were to widen, it could adversely impact future interest income earned on our FFELP student loan portfolio.