COSCIENS Biopharma (CSCI) Risk Analysis

Before we can initiate clinical trials for our product candidates, we must submit the results of preclinical studies to the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities along with other information, including information about product candidate chemistry, manufacturing and controls and our proposed clinical trial protocol, as part of an IND or similar regulatory filing required for authorization to proceed with clinical development. The FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require us to conduct additional preclinical studies for any product candidate before it allows us to initiate clinical trials under any IND or similar regulatory filing, which may lead to delays and increase the costs of our preclinical development programs. Any such delays in the commencement or completion of the DETECT-trial evaluating macimorelin for the diagnosis of CGHD, or any other product candidate, could significantly affect our product development costs. Further, conducting clinical trials in foreign countries, as in our ongoing DETECT-trial, presents additional risks that may delay completion of our clinical trials. These risks include the failure of enrolled patients in foreign countries to adhere to clinical protocol as a result of differences in healthcare services or cultural customs, managing additional administrative burdens associated with foreign regulatory schemes, as well as political and economic risks, including war, relevant to such foreign countries. For example, in 2022 our DETECT-trial activities in both Russia and Ukraine were halted due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which represented approximately 25 of the planned total patients in the trial, resulting in a delay in the expected completion of the trial. To replace these countries and ensure the timely completion of the DETECT-trial, the Company engaged a second CRO to establish testing sites in four new countries (Armenia, Slovakia, Greece, and Turkey). Clinical trial applications are ongoing, however, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has impacted our ability to conduct certain trials in the region and caused delays in the trial to date. This could hinder the completion of our clinical trials and/or analyses of clinical results, which could materially harm our business.

Effective June 21, 2022, the shareholders re-approved our Rights Plan that provides the Board and the Company's shareholders with additional time to assess any unsolicited take-over bid for the Company and, where appropriate, to pursue other alternatives for maximizing shareholder value. Under the Rights Plan, one right has been issued for each currently issued Common Share, and one right will be issued with each additional Common Share that may be issued from time to time. The Rights Plan may have a significant anti-takeover effect. The Rights Plan has the potential to significantly dilute the ownership interests of an acquiror of our shares, and therefore may have the effect of delaying, deterring or preventing a change in control of the Company.

The manufacturing, marketing and sale of Macrilen™ (macimorelin) and our product candidates are and will be subject to strict and ongoing regulation, even with marketing approval by the FDA and the EC for Macrilen™ (macimorelin). Compliance with such regulation will be expensive and consume substantial financial and management resources. For example, the EC approval for macimorelin was conditioned on our agreement to conduct post-marketing follow-up studies to monitor the safety or efficacy of the product. In addition, as clinical experience with a drug expands after approval because the drug is used by a greater number and more diverse group of patients than during clinical trials, side effects or other problems may be observed after approval that were not observed or anticipated during pre-approval clinical trials. In such a case, a regulatory authority could restrict the indications for which the product may be sold or revoke the product's regulatory approval. We and our contract manufacturers will be required to comply with applicable current Good Manufacturing Practice ("GMP") regulations for the manufacture of our current or future products and other regulations. These regulations include requirements relating to quality assurance, as well as the corresponding maintenance of rigorous records and documentation. Manufacturing facilities must be approved before we can use them in the commercial manufacturing of a product and are subject to subsequent periodic inspection by regulatory authorities. In addition, material changes in the methods of manufacturing or changes in the suppliers of raw materials are subject to further regulatory review and approval. If we, or if any future marketing collaborators or contract manufacturers, fail to comply with applicable regulatory requirements, we may be subject to sanctions including fines, product recalls or seizures and related publicity requirements, injunctions, total or partial suspension of production, civil penalties, suspension or withdrawals of previously granted regulatory approvals, warning or untitled letters, refusal to approve pending applications for marketing approval of new products or of supplements to approved applications, complete withdrawal of a marketing application, exclusion from government healthcare programs, import or export bans or restrictions, and/or criminal prosecution and penalties. Any of these penalties could delay or prevent the promotion, marketing or sale of a product.

As a pharmaceutical company, even though we do not provide healthcare services or receive payments directly from or bill directly to Medicare, Medicaid or other national or third-party payers for our current product, U.S. federal and state healthcare laws and regulations, as well as certain EU regulatory and government agencies, pertaining to fraud or abuse are and will be applicable to our business. We, and our licensees, are subject to healthcare fraud and abuse regulation by EU regulatory and government agencies in the countries where we may seek marketing access, and the U.S. federal government and the states in which we conduct our business. The laws that may affect us or affect our licensee's ability to operate include the federal healthcare program anti-kickback statute, which prohibits, among other things, knowingly and willfully offering, paying, soliciting, or receiving remuneration to induce, or in return for, the purchase, lease or order, or arrangement for the purchase, lease or order of any healthcare item or service reimbursable under Medicare, Medicaid or other federally financed healthcare programs. This statute applies to arrangements between pharmaceutical manufacturers and prescribers, purchasers and formulary managers. Although there are a number of statutory exceptions and regulatory safe harbors protecting certain common activities, the exceptions and safe harbors are drawn narrowly, and practices that involve remuneration intended to induce prescribing, purchases or recommendations may be subject to scrutiny if they do not qualify for an exception or a safe harbor. Federal false claims laws prohibit any person from knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, a false claim for payment to the federal government, or knowingly making, or causing to be made, a false statement to get a false claim paid. Pharmaceutical companies have been prosecuted under these laws for a variety of alleged promotional and marketing activities, such as providing free product to customers with the expectation that the customers would bill federal programs for the product, reporting to pricing services inflated average wholesale prices that were then used by federal programs to set reimbursement rates, engaging in off-label promotion that caused claims to be submitted to Medicaid for non-covered off-label uses, and submitting inflated best price information to the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 also created prohibitions against healthcare fraud and false statements relating to healthcare matters. The healthcare fraud statute prohibits knowingly and willfully executing a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program, including private payers. The false statements statute immediately noted above prohibits knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up a material fact or making any materially false, fictitious or fraudulent statement in connection with the delivery of or payment for healthcare benefits, items or services. In addition, there has been a recent trend of increased federal and state regulation of payments made to physicians. The ACA, through the Physician Payment Sunshine Act of 2010, imposed new requirements on manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologics and medical supplies for which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program (with certain exceptions) to report annually to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services ("CMS"), information related to payments or other "transfers of value" made to physicians (defined to include doctors, dentists, optometrists, podiatrists and chiropractors) and teaching hospitals, and applicable manufacturers and group purchasing organizations to report annually to CMS ownership and investment interests held by physicians (as defined above) and their immediate family members and payments or other "transfers of value" to such physician owners and their immediate family members. Manufacturers are required to report such data to the government by the 90th calendar day of each year. The majority of states also have statutes or regulations similar to these federal laws, which apply to items and services reimbursed under Medicaid and other state programs, or, in several states, apply regardless of the payer. In addition, some states have laws that require pharmaceutical companies to adopt comprehensive compliance programs. For example, under California law, pharmaceutical companies must comply with both the April 2003 Office of Inspector General Compliance Program Guidance for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and the PhRMA Code on Interactions with Healthcare Professionals, as amended. Certain states also mandate the tracking and reporting of gifts, compensation, and other remuneration paid by us to physicians and other healthcare providers. Although compliance programs can mitigate the risk of investigation and prosecution for violations of these laws, the risks cannot be entirely eliminated. Any action against us or our licensees for violation of these laws, even if we successfully defend against it, could cause us to incur significant legal expenses, cause reputational harm and divert our management's attention from the operation of our business. Moreover, achieving and sustaining compliance with EU government and regulatory agencies and applicable U.S. federal and state laws may prove costly. Because of the breadth of these laws and the narrowness of the safe harbors, it is possible that some of our business activities could be subject to challenge under one or more of such laws. The ACA also made several important changes to the federal anti-kickback statute, false claims laws and healthcare fraud statute by weakening the intent requirement under the anti-kickback and healthcare fraud statutes that may make it easier for the government or whistleblowers to charge such fraud and abuse violations. A person or entity no longer needs to have actual knowledge of this statute or specific intent to violate it. In addition, the ACA provides that the government may assert that a claim including items or services resulting from a violation of the federal anti-kickback statute constitutes a false or fraudulent claim for purposes of the false claims statutes. In addition, the ACA increases penalties for fraud and abuse violations. If our past, present or future operations are found to be in violation of any of the laws described above or other similar governmental regulations to which we are subject, we may be subject to significant civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, fines, imprisonment, exclusion from government funded healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, and the curtailment or restructuring of our operations, any of which could adversely affect our ability to operate our business and negatively impact our financial results.

Adverse U.S. federal income tax rules apply to "U.S. Holders" who directly or indirectly hold stock of a passive foreign investment company ("PFIC"). We would be classified as a PFIC for U.S. federal income tax purposes for a taxable year if (i) at least 75% of our gross income is "passive income" or (ii) at least 50% of the average value of our assets, including goodwill (based on annual quarterly average), is attributable to assets which produce passive income or are held for the production of passive income. The determination of whether we are, or will be, a PFIC for a taxable year depends, in part, on the application of complex U.S. federal income tax rules, which are subject to various interpretations. Although the matter is not free from doubt, we believe that we were not a PFIC during our 2023 taxable year and will not likely be a PFIC during our 2024 taxable year. Because PFIC status is based on our income, assets and activities for the entire taxable year, and our market capitalization, it is not possible to determine whether we will be characterized as a PFIC for the 2024 taxable year until after the close of the taxable year. The tests for determining PFIC status are subject to a number of uncertainties. These tests are applied annually, and it is difficult to accurately predict future income, assets and activities relevant to this determination. In addition, because the market price of our Common Shares is likely to fluctuate, the market price may affect the determination of whether we will be considered a PFIC. There can be no assurance that we will not be considered a PFIC for any taxable year (including our 2024 taxable year). If we are a PFIC for any taxable year during which a U.S. Holder holds Common Shares, we generally would continue to be treated as a PFIC with respect to that U.S. Holder for all succeeding years during which the U.S. Holder holds such Common Shares, even if we ceased to meet the threshold requirements for PFIC status. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that we will not constitute a PFIC in the current (or any future) tax year or that the Internal Revenue Service (the "IRS") will not challenge any determination made by us concerning our PFIC status. PFIC characterization could result in adverse U.S. federal income tax consequences to U.S. Holders. In particular, absent certain elections, a U.S. Holder would generally be subject to U.S. federal income tax at ordinary income tax rates, plus a possible interest charge, in respect of a gain derived from a disposition of our Common Shares, as well as certain distributions by us. If we are treated as a PFIC for any taxable year, a U.S. Holder may be able to make an election to "mark-to-market" Common Shares each taxable year and recognize ordinary income pursuant to such election based upon increases in the value of the Common Shares. In addition, U.S. Holders may mitigate the adverse tax consequences of the PFIC rules by making a "qualified electing fund" ("QEF") election; however, there can be no assurance that we will satisfy the record keeping requirements applicable to a QEF or that we will provide the information regarding our income that would be necessary for a U.S. Holder to make a QEF election. If the Company is a PFIC, U.S. Holders will generally be required to file an annual information return with the IRS (on IRS Form 8621 Information Return by a Shareholder of a Passive Foreign Investment Company or Qualified Electing Fund, which PFIC shareholders will be required to file with their U.S. federal income tax or information returns) relating to their ownership of Common Shares. This filing requirement is in addition to any pre-existing reporting requirements that apply to a U.S. Holder's interest in a PFIC (which this requirement does not affect).

As part of our product development and commercialization strategy, we are evaluating out-licensing opportunities for Macrilen™ (macimorelin) in addition to existing License Agreements and commercialization agreements signed with Pharmanovia, MegaPharm Ltd. and ER Kim Pharmaceuticals Bulgaria Eood and NK MEDITECH Ltd. If we elect to collaborate with third parties in respect of macimorelin, we may not be able to negotiate a collaborative arrangement for macimorelin on favorable terms and conditions, if at all. Should any partner fail to successfully commercialize macimorelin, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected.

Our ability or that of our licensee(s) to successfully commercialize Macrilen™ (macimorelin) will depend significantly on our or their ability to obtain acceptable prices and the availability of reimbursement to the patient from third-party payers, such as governmental and private insurance plans. These third-party payers frequently require companies to provide predetermined discounts from list prices, and they are increasingly challenging the prices charged for pharmaceuticals and other medical products. Macrilen™ (macimorelin) may not be considered cost-effective, and reimbursement to the patient may not be available or sufficient to allow us or our licensee(s) to sell our products on a competitive basis. It may not be possible to negotiate favorable reimbursement rates for Macrilen™ (macimorelin). Adverse pricing and reimbursement conditions would also likely diminish our ability to induce third parties to in-license Macrilen™ (macimorelin). In addition, the continuing efforts of third-party payers to contain or reduce the costs of healthcare through various means may limit our commercial opportunity and reduce any associated revenue and profits. We expect that proposals to implement similar government controls will continue. The pricing of pharmaceutical products, in general, and specialty drugs, in particular, has been a topic of concern in the U.S. Congress, where hearings on the topic have been held, and has been a topic of speeches given by political figures, including the President of the U.S. Specifically, there have been several recent U.S. Congressional inquiries and proposed bills designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to drug pricing, review the relationship between pricing and manufacturer patient programs, and reform government program reimbursement methodologies for drugs. Furthermore, there is drug pricing reform taking place at the state level in the U.S. that will impact how pharmaceutical companies can market and sell drug products and at what price. Additionally, third-party payers are increasingly challenging the price, examining the medical necessity, and reviewing the cost-effectiveness of medical drug products and medical services, in addition to questioning their safety and efficacy. There can be no assurance as to how this scrutiny on pricing of pharmaceutical products will impact future pricing of a product or orphan drugs or pharmaceutical products generally. In addition, increasing emphasis on managed care will continue to put pressure on the pricing of pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical products. Cost control initiatives could decrease the price that we or any current or potential collaborators could receive a product and could adversely affect our profitability. In addition, in the U.S., Canada and many other countries, pricing and/or profitability of some or all prescription pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals are subject to government control. If we or our licensee(s) fail to obtain acceptable prices or an adequate level of reimbursement for Macrilen™ (macimorelin), the sales of Macrilen™ (macimorelin) would be adversely affected or there may be no commercially viable market for Macrilen™ (macimorelin).

Public health crises such as pandemics, epidemics or similar outbreaks, including the novel strain of coronavirus known as "COVID-19", could adversely impact our operations or the market price of our Common Shares. The extent to which such pandemics may impact our operations or the market price of our Common Shares will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted with confidence, either internationally or within the U.S., Canada or Germany, including the duration and severity of such an outbreak and the actions taken in response to contain the outbreak or treat its impact, among others. The spread of a pandemic may impact our operations, including the potential interruption of our clinical trial activities and our supply chain. For example, the rise in the Omicron variant in the COVID-19 pandemic caused delays in site initiation and patient enrollment in our Phase 3 DETECT clinical trial for diagnostic use in childhood-onset growth hormone deficiency. As well, sales activities for Macrilen™ in the US by Novo Nordisk may be impacted due to delays of diagnostic activities on adult growth hormone deficiency ("AGHD") in the U.S. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic may also have caused some patients to be unwilling to enroll in our trials or be unable to comply with clinical trial protocols if quarantines impeded patient movement or interrupted healthcare services, which would have delayed our ability to conduct clinical trials or release clinical trial results on a timely basis and could have delayed our ability to obtain regulatory approval and commercialize our product candidates. The spread of an infectious disease, such as COVID-19, may also result in the inability of our suppliers to deliver components or raw materials on a timely basis or at all. In addition, hospitals may reduce staffing and reduce or postpone certain treatments in response to the spread of an infectious disease. Such events may result in a period of business disruption and, in reduced operations, doctors or medical providers may be unwilling to participate in our clinical trials, any of which could materially affect our business, financial condition or results of operations. Although we believe we are in a recovery period, the significant spread of COVID-19 within the U.S., Canada or Germany resulted in a widespread health crisis and had an adverse effect on the national economies generally, the markets that we serve, our operations and the market price of our Common Shares.