C&F Financial (CFFI) Risk Analysis

Making loans is an essential element of our business. The risk of nonpayment is affected by a number of factors, including but not limited to: the duration of the credit; credit risks of a particular customer; inflation; changes in economic and industry conditions; and, in the case of a collateralized loan, risks resulting from uncertainties about the future value of the collateral. Although we seek to mitigate risks inherent in lending by adhering to specific underwriting practices, our loans may not be repaid. We attempt to maintain an appropriate allowance for credit losses to provide for losses in our loan portfolio. Because any estimate of credit losses is necessarily subjective and the accuracy of any estimate depends on the outcome of future events that are not within our control, we face the risk that charge-offs in future periods will exceed our allowance for credit losses and that additional provision for credit losses will be required, which would have an adverse effect on the Corporation's net income. Although we believe our allowance for credit losses is adequate to absorb losses that are inherent in our loan portfolio, we cannot predict the timing or severity of such losses nor give any assurance that our allowance will be adequate in the future. Our banking regulators, as an integral part of their examination process, periodically review the allowance for credit losses and may require us to increase our allowance by recognizing additional provision for credit losses charged to expense, or to decrease the allowance by recognizing loan charge-offs. Any such required additional provisions for credit losses or charge-offs could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. On January 1, 2023, we adopted Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) Topic 326, "Financial Instruments-Credit Losses" (ASC 326), which replaces existing accounting principles for the recognition of loan losses based on losses that have been incurred with a requirement to record an allowance for credit losses that represents expected credit losses over the lifetime of all loans in the Corporation's portfolio. Under ASC 326, the Corporation's estimate of expected credit losses is based on reasonable and supportable forecasts of future economic conditions and loan performance. While the adoption of ASC 326 does not affect ultimate loan performance or cash flows of the Corporation from making loans, recognizing an allowance based on expected credit losses may create volatility in the level of our allowance for credit losses and our results of operations, including based on volatility in economic forecasts and our expectations of loan performance in future periods, as actual results may differ materially from our estimates. If we are required to materially increase our level of allowance for credit losses for any reason, such increase could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Deterioration in economic conditions may cause borrowers to default on their mortgages, which may result in losses to investors who purchased residential mortgage loans originated by C&F Mortgage and sold in the secondary market, especially if accompanied by declines in the value of residential real estate securing those loans.  This may result in potential repurchase or indemnification obligations for C&F Mortgage.  Such obligations may arise in the event of claims by investors of borrower misrepresentation, fraud, early-payment default, or underwriting error, as investors attempt to minimize their losses. We cannot be assured that a prolonged period of payment defaults and foreclosures will not result in an increase in requests for repurchases or indemnifications. Alternatively, during periods of low or falling interest rates, our customers may find opportunities to refinance shortly after obtaining a mortgage loan from C&F Mortgage, which may result in unexpected prepayments on loans that have been sold into the secondary market.  This may result in obligations of C&F Mortgage to return a portion of the sales proceeds from such loans to investors pursuant to the terms of the sale.  Moreover, prolonged periods of inflation may also lead to increased loan defaults and losses, which may result in losses incurred by secondary market investors for which C&F Mortgage may have an indemnification or repurchase obligation. We attempt to maintain an appropriate reserve for indemnification losses and for prepayment obligations.  Although we believe our reserves for indemnification losses and prepayment obligations are adequate, these estimates are inherently subjective and actual indemnification losses and prepayment obligations will depend on future events that are often not within our control. Therefore, we can give no assurance that established reserves will be adequate.  Additional provision for indemnification losses or additional obligations arising from prepayments would have an adverse effect on the Corporation's net income.

At December 31, 2023, 38.4 percent of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial real estate loans, which includes loans secured by apartment complexes, retail properties, and office and warehouse properties. These loans generally carry larger loan balances and involve a greater degree of financial and credit risk than home equity and residential loans. The increased financial and credit risk associated with these types of loans is a result of several factors, including the concentration of principal in a limited number of loans and to borrowers in similar lines of business, the size of loan balances, the effects of general economic conditions on income-producing properties and the increased difficulty of evaluating and monitoring these types of loans. In addition to other risks associated with the ownership of real estate, the repayment of these loans may be dependent upon the profitability and cash flows of the business or project. As a result, events beyond our control, such as a downturn in the local economy, could adversely affect the performance of the commercial real estate loan portfolio. At December 31, 2023, 23.0 percent of our loan portfolio consisted of consumer finance automobile loans, primarily for customers who have limited access to traditional automobile financing due to increased credit risk. During periods of high inflation, economic slowdown or recession, delinquencies, defaults, repossessions and losses may increase in this portfolio. Significant increases in the inventory of used automobiles during periods of economic recession may also depress the prices at which we may sell repossessed vehicles or delay the timing of these sales. The number of delinquent loans, fluctuations in wholesale values of used automobiles and the availability of repossession agencies may impact the amount of net charge-offs experienced within the consumer finance automobile portfolio. Because our borrowers have increased credit risk, the actual rates of delinquencies, defaults, repossessions and losses on these loans are higher than those experienced in the general automobile finance industry and could be dramatically affected by a general economic downturn. In addition, our servicing costs may increase without a corresponding increase in our finance charge income. While we manage the higher risk inherent in loans made to these borrowers through our underwriting criteria for installment sales contracts we purchase and collection methods, we cannot guarantee that these criteria or methods will ultimately provide adequate protection against these risks.

Events in the financial services industry, including bank closures, cause general uncertainty and concern regarding the adequacy of liquidity of the financial services industry generally. While we rely on different sources of funding to meet potential liquidity needs, our business strategies are largely based on access to funding from customer deposits and supplemental funding provided by wholesale or other secondary liquidity sources. Deposit levels may be affected by various industry factors, including interest rates paid by competitors, general interest rate levels, returns available to customers on alternative investments, conditions in the financial services industry specifically and general economic conditions that impact the amount of liquidity in the economy and savings levels, and also by factors that impact customers' perception of our financial condition and capital and liquidity levels. Events involving limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments that affect financial institutions, transactional counterparties or other companies in the financial services industry, or the financial services industry generally, or concerns or rumors about any events of these kinds or other similar events, have in the past and may in the future lead to erosion of customer confidence in the banking system, deposit volatility, liquidity issues, stock price volatility, and other adverse developments. The bank closures in the first half of 2023 led to such disruption and volatility in the financial services industry generally, including deposit outflows and increasing liquidity needs at many regional banks, which led banking regulators to take extraordinary actions to insure otherwise uninsured deposit accounts at the closed banks and to permit such banks' depositors to promptly access all funds on deposit. The response to bank closures by the U.S. Government, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve, cannot be predicted and the policies and regulations implemented in response to past bank closures cannot be expected to be extended or repeated in response to a future bank closure. The Corporation cannot predict to what extent any such steps taken by the banking regulators will be effective in calming the financial markets and financial services industry generally, preventing further bank closures, or reducing the risk of deposit outflows, and particularly sudden deposit outflows, from banks. As a result of this uncertainty, we face the potential for deposit outflows, increased borrowing and funding costs, and increased competition for liquidity, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our financial performance or financial condition.

Our profitability depends in substantial part on our net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans, securities and other interest-earning assets, and interest paid on deposits and borrowings divided by total interest-earning assets. Changes in interest rates will affect our net interest margin in diverse ways, including the pricing of loans and deposits, the levels of prepayments and asset quality. We are unable to predict actual fluctuations of market interest rates because many factors influencing interest rates, including changes in economic conditions, are beyond our control. We believe that our current interest rate exposure is manageable and does not indicate any significant exposure to interest rate changes. To combat rising inflation, beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark federal funds interest rate at the fastest pace in over 40 years, increasing 425 basis points during 2022 and an additional 100 basis points in 2023. If market rates continue to rise, or remain elevated for an extended period of time, we may experience more competitive pressures to increase the rates we pay on deposits, which may result in a decrease in our net interest income, a change in the mix of noninterest and interest-bearing accounts, reduced demand for loans or increases in the rate of default on existing loans. Conversely, if market interest rates decline, or if the Federal Reserve lowers the target federal funds rate, such lower rates could limit our interest rate spread and may adversely affect our business forecasts. If market interest rates were to fall, yields on loans and investments may fall. In addition, the Corporation could experience further net interest margin compression if it is unable to maintain its current level of loans outstanding by continuing to originate new loans or if it experiences a decrease in deposit balances, which would require the Corporation to seek funding from other sources at relatively higher rates of interest. It is possible that significant or unexpected changes in interest rates may take place in the future, and we cannot always accurately predict the nature or magnitude of such changes or how such changes may affect our business or results of operations. The Corporation's investment portfolio consists of fixed income debt securities, classified as available for sale, whose market values fluctuate with changes in interest rates.  Available for sale debt securities are carried at estimated fair value with the corresponding unrealized gains and losses recognized in other comprehensive income.  Gains or losses are only recognized in net income upon the sale of the security.  Additionally, under ASC 326 a loss is recognized for expected credit losses on available for sale debt securities or when the Corporation does not expect to recover its investment in a debt security, to the extent that the carrying amount of the security exceeds its market value.  As a result of increases in market interest rates during 2022 and 2023, the market value of the Corporation's investment portfolio declined significantly.  While the Corporation does not intend to sell any of its securities, the portfolio serves as a source of liquidity and consists of securities available for sale, which may be sold in response to changes in market interest rates, changes in prepayment risk, increases in loan demand, general liquidity needs and other similar factors.  If the Corporation is forced to sell any of its securities while in an unrealized loss position, the loss would be recognized in net income.  Additionally, while the regulatory capital of the Corporation or the Bank is not expected to be impacted by unrealized losses on securities, tangible common equity, a non-GAAP financial measure, is reduced for unrealized losses on securities, and regulatory capital would be reduced for any losses recognized in net income.

Our business strategies are based on access to funding from local customer deposits. Deposit levels may be affected by a number of factors, including interest rates paid by competitors, general interest rate levels, returns available to customers on alternative investments and general economic conditions that affect savings levels and the amount of liquidity in the economy, including government stimulus efforts in response to economic crises. If our deposit levels fall, we could lose a relatively low cost source of funding and our interest expense would likely increase as we obtain alternative funding to replace lost deposits. If local customer deposits are not sufficient to fund our normal operations and growth, or if we lose a significant portion of our local customer deposits or a significant deposit relationship, we will look to outside sources, such as borrowings from the FHLB, which is a secured funding source, and our liquidity and/or profitability could be adversely impacted. Our ability to access borrowings from the FHLB will be dependent upon whether and the extent to which we can provide collateral to secure FHLB borrowings. We may also look to federal funds purchased and brokered deposits, although the use of brokered deposits may be limited or discouraged by our banking regulators. We may also seek to raise funds through the issuance of shares of our common stock, or other equity or equity-related securities, or debt securities including subordinated notes as additional sources of liquidity. If we are unable to access funding sufficient to support our business operations and growth strategies or are unable to access such funding on attractive terms, we may not be able to implement our business strategies which may negatively affect our financial performance.