California BanCorp (CALB) Risk Analysis

Our ability to engage in routine funding and other transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. Financial institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty or other relationships. Defaults by, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial institutions or market utilities, or the financial services industry generally, may lead to market-wide liquidity problems and losses of depositor, creditor and counterparty confidence and could lead to losses or defaults by us or by other institutions. During 2023, the high-profile failures of several depository institutions negatively impacted customer confidence in the safety and soundness of some regional and community banks. As a result, we faced and may face that risk that some customers may prefer to maintain deposits with larger financial institutions or invest in short-term fixed income securities instead of deposits with the Bank, either of which could materially adversely impact our liquidity, cost of funding, capital, and results of operations.

We maintain an allowance for credit losses to provide a reserve for loan defaults and non-performance. There is no precise method of predicting credit losses. We regularly evaluate and conduct an analysis to determine the probable and estimable losses inherent in our loan and securities portfolios and the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses. This evaluation requires us to make estimates and judgments regarding the financial condition and creditworthiness of a significant number of our borrowers, the creditworthiness of the issuers of our securities, the value and sufficiency of the collateral securing our loans, economic conditions and other factors, all of which are difficult to assess and may change over time. On January 1, 2023, in accordance with GAAP, we adopted a new accounting standard for establishing allowances for loan and lease losses referred to as the Current Expected Credit Loss ("CECL"). CECL replaces the legacy approach under GAAP, which generally considered only past events and current conditions, with a forward-looking methodology that reflects the expected credit losses over the lives of financial assets, starting when such assets are first originated or acquired. In contrast, the CECL standard requires us to record, at the time of origination, credit losses expected throughout the life of the asset portfolio on loans and held-to-maturity securities rather than recording losses when it is probable that a loss event has occurred. The CECL standard may create more volatility in the level of allowance for loan losses. If we are required to materially adjust the level of our allowance for loan losses for any reason, such an adjustment could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. If our estimates or judgments prove to be incorrect due to circumstances outside our control, the ineffectiveness of our credit administration or for other reasons, if the assumptions and inputs underlying our CECL model change, or if the Bank's regulators come to a different conclusion regarding the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses, we could be required to increase the provisions we make for credit losses, which could reduce our income or could cause us to incur operating losses in the future. Moreover, additions to the allowance may be necessary based on changes in economic and real estate market conditions, new information regarding existing loans or the issuers of securities, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, or unanticipated credit losses results from other circumstances, both within and outside of our control. These additions may require increased provision expense, which could negatively impact our results of operations.

Loan defaults and losses on the loans we make are an inherent risk of the banking business. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that our borrowers will not repay their loans according to their terms, and that the collateral securing repayment of their loans, if any, may not be sufficient to ensure repayment. In addition, there are risks inherent in making any loan, including risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to proper loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions and risks inherent in dealing with individual borrowers. Although we believe that our underwriting criteria are, and historically have been, appropriate for the various kinds of loans we make, we have incurred losses on loans that have met these criteria, and may experience higher than expected losses depending on economic factors and our borrowers' behavior. The risks of loan losses are exacerbated by adverse changes in economic, operating and other conditions, which are beyond our control, and may cause our actual loan losses to exceed our current allowance estimates.

Most of our commercial business and commercial real estate loans are made to small to medium-sized businesses. These businesses generally have fewer financial resources in terms of capital or borrowing capacity than larger entities, and may have a heightened vulnerability to economic conditions and greater customer concentration risk. If general economic conditions in the markets in which we operate negatively impact this customer segment, our results of operations and financial condition and the value of our common stock may be adversely affected. Moreover, a portion of these loans have been made by us in recent years and the borrowers may not have experienced a complete business or economic cycle. The deterioration of our borrowers' businesses may hinder their ability to repay their loans with us, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

As of December 31, 2023, approximately 57% of our loan portfolio was comprised of commercial real estate and other loans with real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral. This includes collateral consisting of income producing and residential construction properties, which properties tend to be more sensitive to general economic conditions and downturns in real estate markets. As a result, adverse developments affecting real estate values in our market areas could increase the credit risk associated with our real estate loan portfolio. The market value of real estate can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time as a result of market conditions in the area in which the real estate is located. Adverse changes affecting real estate values and the liquidity of real estate in our markets could increase the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio, and could result in losses that would adversely affect credit quality, financial condition, and results of operation. Negative changes in the economy affecting real estate values and liquidity in our market areas could significantly impair the value of property pledged as collateral on loans and affect our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure without a loss or additional losses. Collateral may have to be sold for less than the outstanding balance of the loan, which could result in losses on such loans. Such declines and losses could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and growth prospects. If real estate values decline, it is also more likely that we would be required to increase our allowance for loan losses, which could adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Commercial real estate, commercial and industrial and construction and land development based lending usually involve higher credit risks than 1-4 family residential real estate lending. At December 31, 2023 the following loan types accounted for the stated percentages of our loan portfolio: commercial real estate (both owner-occupied and non-owner occupied) 54%; commercial and industrial 40%; and construction and land 3%. These types of loans also involve larger loan balances to a single borrower or groups of related borrowers. These higher credit risks are further heightened when the loans are concentrated in a small number of larger borrowers leading to relationship exposure. As of December 31, 2023, we had 22 relationships with over $15 million of outstanding borrowings with us. While we are not dependent on any of these relationships and while none of these large relationships have directly impacted our allowance for loan losses, a deterioration of any of these large credits could require us to increase our allowance for loan losses or result in significant losses to us. Non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans may be affected to a greater extent than residential loans by adverse conditions in real estate markets or the economy because commercial real estate borrowers' ability to repay their loans depends on successful development of their properties, in addition to the factors affecting residential real estate borrowers. These loans also involve greater risk because they generally are not fully amortizing over the loan period, but have a balloon payment due at maturity. A borrower's ability to make a balloon payment typically will depend on being able to either refinance the loan or sell the underlying property in a timely manner. Commercial and industrial loans and owner-occupied commercial real estate loans are typically based on the borrowers' ability to repay the loans from the cash flow of their businesses. These loans may involve greater risk because the availability of funds to repay each loan depends substantially on the success of the business itself. In addition, the assets securing the loans have the following characteristics: (i) they depreciate over time, (ii) they are difficult to appraise and liquidate, and (iii) they fluctuate in value based on the success of the business. A subset of our commercial and industrial loans are structured as Asset Based Lending ("ABL") loans. Generally, our ABL loans are structured as callable and cancelable transactions. Generally the borrowing base has a maximum advance rate of 80% against eligible receivables and may include a lower advance rate against inventory. Repayment of ABL loans depends substantially on the ability of the borrower to monetize the assets in a defined borrowing base. Therefore, the quality and collectability of accounts receivable, concentrations among account debtors, financial strength of the account debtors, and quality and transferability of inventory can impact repayment. At December 31, 2023, ABL loans totaled approximately $35.8 million, or 2% of our loan portfolio. Risk of loss on a construction and development loan depends largely upon whether our initial estimate of the property's value at completion of construction or development equals or exceeds the cost of the property construction or development (including interest), the availability of permanent take-out financing and the builder's ability to ultimately sell the property. During the construction or development phase, a number of factors can result in delays and cost overruns. If estimates of value are inaccurate or if actual construction costs exceed estimates, the value of the property securing the loan may be insufficient to ensure full repayment when completed through a permanent loan or by seizure of collateral. Additionally, commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans and construction and development loans are more susceptible to a risk of loss during a downturn in the business cycle. Our underwriting, review and monitoring cannot eliminate all of the risks related to these loans. Banking regulators are giving commercial real estate lending greater scrutiny, and may require banks with higher levels of commercial real estate loans to implement improved underwriting, internal controls, risk management policies and portfolio stress testing, as well as possibly higher levels of allowances for losses and capital levels as a result of commercial real estate lending growth and exposures. In recent years, commercial real estate markets have been particularly impacted by the economic disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been a catalyst for the evolution of various remote work options which could impact the long-term performance of some types of office properties within our commercial real estate portfolio. The federal banking regulatory agencies have expressed concerns about weaknesses in the current commercial real estate market. Given conditions in the commercial real estate market, we face a heightened risk that some of our commercial real estate loans may be susceptible to a risk of loss. Therefore, we could experience losses or be required to raise additional capital or restrict our future growth as a result of our higher level of commercial real estate loans.

Our 10 largest borrowing relationships accounted for approximately 13% of our loans at December 31, 2023. Our largest single borrowing relationship accounted for approximately 2% of our loans at December 31, 2023. The loss of any combination of these borrowers, or a significant decline in their borrowings due to fluctuations related to their business needs, could adversely affect our results of operations if we are unable to replace their borrowings with similarly priced new loans or investments. In addition, with this concentration of credit risk among a limited number of borrowers, we may face a greater risk of material credits losses if any one or several of these borrowers fail to perform in accordance with their loans, compared to a bank with a more diversified loan portfolio.

The majority of our banking assets are monetary in nature and subject to risk from changes in interest rates. Like most financial institutions, our earnings are significantly dependent on our net interest income, the principal component of our earnings, which is the difference between interest earned by us from our interest-earning assets, such as loans and investment securities, and interest paid by us on our interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. We expect that we will periodically experience "gaps" in the interest rate sensitivities of our assets and liabilities, meaning that either our interest-bearing liabilities will be more sensitive to changes in market interest rates than our interest-earning assets, or vice versa. In either event, if market interest rates should move contrary to our position, this "gap" will negatively impact our earnings. Many factors impact interest rates, including governmental monetary policies, inflation, recession, changes in unemployment, the money supply, and international disorder and instability in domestic and foreign financial markets. Interest rate increases often result in larger payment requirements for our borrowers, which increase the potential for default. At the same time, the marketability of the property securing a loan may be adversely affected by any reduced demand resulting from higher interest rates. In a declining interest rate environment, there may be an increase in prepayments on loans as borrowers refinance their loans at lower rates. Changes in interest rates also can affect the value of loans, securities and other assets. An increase in interest rates that adversely affects the ability of borrowers to pay the principal or interest on loans may lead to an increase in nonperforming assets and a reduction of income recognized, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows. If short-term interest rates remain at their historically low levels for a prolonged period, and assuming longer term interest rates fall further, we could experience net interest margin compression as our interest earning assets would continue to re-price downward while our interest-bearing liability rates could fail to decline in tandem. Such an occurrence would have a material adverse effect on our net interest income and our results of operations. Although we believe that we have implemented effective asset and liability management strategies to mitigate the potential adverse effects of changes in interest rates on our results of operations, any substantial or unexpected change in, or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Liquidity is essential to our business. We rely on our ability to generate deposits and effectively manage the repayment and maturity schedules of our loans and investment securities, respectively, to ensure that we have adequate liquidity to fund our operations. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale of our investment securities, Federal Home Loan Bank ("FHLB") advances, the sale of loans, and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on our liquidity. Our most important source of funds consists of deposits. Deposit balances can decrease when customers perceive alternative investments as providing a better risk/return tradeoff. If our customers move money out of bank deposits and into other investments, we would lose a relatively low-cost source of funds, increasing our funding costs and reducing our net interest income and net income. Any decline in available liquidity could adversely impact our ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet our expenses, pay dividends to our shareholders, or to fulfill obligations such as repaying our borrowings or meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our liquidity, business, financial condition and results of operations.

We are a community bank, and our reputation is one of the most valuable components of our business. As such, we strive to conduct our business in a manner that enhances our reputation. This is done, in part, by recruiting, hiring and retaining bankers and other associates who share our core values of being an integral part of the communities we serve, delivering superior service to our customers and caring about our customers and associates. Furthermore, maintaining our reputation also depends on our ability to protect our brand name and associated trademarks. However, reputation risk, or the risk to our business, earnings and capital from negative public opinion surrounding our Company and the financial institutions industry generally, is inherent in our business. Negative public opinion can result from our actual or alleged conduct in any number of activities, including business and lending practices, corporate governance and acquisitions, and from actions taken by government regulators and community organizations in response to those activities. Negative public opinion can adversely affect our ability to keep and attract customers and employees and can expose us to litigation and regulatory action. Although we take steps to minimize reputation risk in dealing with our customers and communities, this risk will always be present given the nature of our business. If our reputation is negatively affected by the actions of our employees or otherwise, our business and operating results may be materially adversely affected.

Uncertainty about the effect of the proposed merger with SCB on our employees, customers and vendors may have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. These uncertainties may impair our ability to attract, retain and motivate key personnel and customers pending the consummation of the merger, because such personnel and customers may experience uncertainty about their future roles and relationships following the consummation of the merger. Additionally, these uncertainties could cause customers and others who deal with us to seek to change or terminate their business relationships with us. Competitors may target our existing employees or customers by highlighting potential uncertainties and integration difficulties that may result from the merger. Our pursuit of the merger and the preparation for the integration may distract or burden management and internal resources. Any significant diversion of management attention away from ongoing business concerns and any difficulties encountered in the transition and integration process could have a material adverse effect on our and ultimately the combined company's business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, the merger agreement restricts us and SCB from taking certain actions without the other party's consent while the merger is pending. These restrictions could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, financial condition and results of operations.