XRP (XRP-USD) bulls are circling the $3 target again, fired up by chart formations that some traders believe signal an explosive move. But the reality under the surface paints a more fragile picture.
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The latest spark comes from crypto analysts spotting a descending triangle pattern forming on XRP’s shorter timeframes. Traders like Milkybull and Gordon say the setup suggests XRP is coiling before a breakout. If it plays out, the price could rally toward $3.35, nearly 50% higher from here.
But there’s a catch. That same triangle is known historically to be a bearish signal more than half the time. And this one is forming in conditions that lean toward a breakdown, not a breakout.
The Triangle Looks Bullish but Has a Bearish History
Descending triangles are tricky. In traditional markets, they resolve to the downside about 54% of the time. In crypto, where volatility exaggerates every move, some analysts say failure rates climb even higher.
This matters because XRP’s current triangle is already showing cracks. The $1.80 to $2.00 support zone has been tested again and again without strong bouncebacks. Sellers look more aggressive with each lower high.
In 2021 and 2022, XRP formed a similar triangle that broke lower and took months to recover. Right now, history could be repeating.
A Breakdown Risks Sending XRP Back to $1
If XRP falls below $1.80 decisively, the price could head toward $1. That’s not just a psychological level. It’s where XRP’s realized price, the average price holders paid, sits. Losing that zone would mean most holders are back in the red.
This does not eliminate the $3 narrative entirely. But it does suggest it might be premature without new catalysts to break the trend.
The Bullish Case Hinges on Big News Not Charts
Still, the bulls have reasons to hope. A resolution in Ripple’s SEC battle could flip sentiment overnight. There’s also talk of a possible XRP ETF approval and fresh whale accumulation showing up in onchain data.
Those are the types of events that override technical weakness. But without them, XRP’s chart structure is vulnerable to downside before any upside play comes into focus.
XRP could still make a run toward $3 in 2025. But for now, the technicals show a market on edge. If the triangle breaks the wrong way, traders might not just miss the breakout. They could be staring at $1 before the next big rally even has a chance to begin.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $2.1835.
