XRP’s (XRP-USD) latest rally is starting to look familiar—and not in a good way. Analysts warn that the token may be tracing the same pattern that preceded 75% to 90% drawdowns in past cycles.
NUPL Signals Showholders Are Back in Denial
XRP has dropped over 40% from its January high of $3.40, now trading around $2.11. But onchain data suggests the pain may not be over. According to Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, XRP has entered the “denial” phase—a point that historically arrives just before sentiment flips and deeper losses follow.
In 2018, XRP hit $3.00 before plunging 90% as NUPL shifted from “euphoria” to “capitulation.” A similar move happened in 2021, when the token dropped 75% after topping out at $1.96. If the current fractal holds, analysts say another major correction may be underway.
XRP’s Technical Fractals Mirror 2021 Breakdown
On the weekly chart, XRP is also flashing red. Like in 2021, the price formed a local high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted a lower high—a classic bearish divergence. Back then, the signal preceded an 85% crash. This time, XRP has already dropped 40%, and a fall below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.58 could open the door to further downside—potentially as low as $0.87.
That’s a 60% drop from current levels, with $1.58 as the key level to watch heading into June.
XRP ETF Hopes and Trump Win Fuel Short-Term Hype
XRP’s recent rally was partly driven by speculation over a possible XRP ETF and optimism around Ripple’s legal battles. Pro-crypto sentiment following Donald Trump’s 2024 election win also boosted buying momentum.
But fundamentals alone may not be enough to stop a technical breakdown if history repeats.
Macro Factors Add More Pressure on XRP
Overall, broader crypto markets are turning cautious, and risk assets are wobbling ahead of upcoming U.S. tariff announcements. Naturally, high-beta altcoins like XRP remain especially vulnerable. Until XRP can reclaim key support levels and break out of its range, the chart says what the bulls won’t: this could still get worse before it gets better.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.11.
