After dipping below $3 earlier this week, XRP has clawed its way back to a key psychological level. On the surface, it may look like buyers are stepping back in. But underneath, the warning signs are still flashing. Investor outflows have surged to their highest level in seven months, and long-term holders are continuing to trim their positions.
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That puts XRP in a precarious position. The bounce is encouraging, but unless it can build real momentum from here, the next leg could still be lower.
Heavy Outflows Hint That Confidence Remains Shaky
One of the clearest red flags comes from the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. This indicator, which tracks the flow of capital in and out of an asset, has sharply declined. That suggests that while the price has recovered to $3, money is still leaving the ecosystem.
In fact, CMF just printed its most negative reading in seven months, meaning sell-side pressure is still dominating. That’s often a sign of fear, hesitation, or strategic exits from large holders. And even though price has rebounded, that kind of capital flight usually doesn’t happen without consequence.
The risk now is that this recovery turns into a false breakout. If outflows continue while price stalls, XRP could find itself once again slipping under the $3 mark, this time with fewer buyers willing to step in.
Even Long-Term Holders Are Heading for the Exit
The warning lights don’t end with short-term traders. Data shows that even long-term holders, the ones typically viewed as the most committed, are selling. Net position changes for this group have fallen to their lowest point in seven months, and the trend has been accelerating since mid-July.
This matters because long-term holders are often the anchor that keeps price grounded during volatile periods. When they start unloading, it increases overall supply and sends a broader signal to the market that sentiment is turning sour.
These moves aren’t random. They reflect growing concerns over XRP’s ability to hold key levels and deliver a convincing rally. If the selling continues, it will only amplify pressure on the current recovery.
Price Recovery Is a Start, But the Real Test Is Still Ahead
XRP may have bounced back to $3, but it’s not out of danger yet. The $2.95 to $3.00 zone is acting like a magnet: the price keeps getting pulled back to it, only to struggle for follow-through. That creates a battleground where sentiment could quickly flip in either direction.
The next major price point is $2.65. If XRP loses momentum and starts sliding again, that level will be tested fast. And if it fails, the path down to $2.30 becomes much more likely.
On the other hand, if XRP can turn $3 into a reliable support level and close above it with conviction, the conversation changes. That would put $3.40 back on the radar and open the door to reversing the bearish setup.
What Needs to Happen Now
The recovery to $3 is promising, but XRP needs more than a price print to change the tone. First, capital needs to start flowing back in. That means a sharp rebound in CMF, signaling that investors are once again willing to take on risk.
Second, long-term holders need to slow or stop their selling. Without their support, XRP will struggle to maintain any breakout. A shift in their behavior would send a strong signal that the worst may be behind.
Third, price must hold and build on the $3 mark. That means not just touching it, but staying above it with clean, high-volume closes. Anything less could invite another round of weakness.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $3.0029.
