XRP (XRP-USD) has extended its punishing downtrend, slipping below the key psychological support level of $2.00 for the third time in weeks. This sharp price weakness comes despite the successful launch of U.S.-based spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded an impressive 20 consecutive days of inflows, bringing cumulative institutional capital to almost $1 billion.
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The stark divergence between strong institutional buying and falling spot price highlights a structural issue. While institutional demand is “heating up fast,” XRP ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in inflows over three weeks. This handily beat the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on certain days; because the buying is currently being offset by whale selling and broader market weakness. Analysts note this often happens with new ETF launches, where slow institutional accumulation is initially drowned out by “sell-the-news” profit-taking.
On-Chain Data Points to $1.40 as the Last Defense
The technical structure is flashing clear bearish warnings. The current price level is testing a daily order block around $1.93, a zone that on-chain data suggests has limited depth.
Analysts are using a metric called UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which maps the average price at which tokens were last acquired, to pinpoint where holders are likely to defend the price. The URPD analysis for XRP reveals small clusters of buying activity below $1.90, suggesting less collective investor conviction to hold the price here.
The next significant level of support sits at $1.78, where approximately 1.85 billion XRP were last acquired. However, if that level fails, the price is at risk of falling rapidly toward a critical zone. The ultimate “last line of defense” is identified at $1.40, which aligns with a local low and the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hitting its lowest point since July 2024, confirming the increasing downside momentum.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $1.9249.
