In 2025, the XRP community, often called the “XRP Army,” saw almost every major milestone they had spent years waiting for. From the final resolution of the SEC lawsuit to the historic launch of US-based spot ETFs, the boxes were all checked. However, the one thing missing was the “moon” shot. Instead of hitting the long-predicted $5 mark, XRP peaked at $3.66 and spent the end of the year struggling to hold onto its value.
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Here are why the biggest wins in XRP history haven’t translated to the price yet.
SEC Settlement Clears The Way for U.S. Banks
Ripple officially closed the book on its legal battle with the SEC in August 2025. By paying a significantly reduced fine of $50 million, down from the SEC’s original multi-billion dollar demand, Ripple secured total regulatory clarity for XRP in the United States. This settlement removed the securities cloud that had kept U.S. banks and exchanges away for years.
Following the news, XRP initially rocketed past $3.30, but the momentum didn’t last. Even with the legal chains removed, the price was unable to sustain its rally, eventually sliding back toward the $1.80 range as the initial victory pump faded into general market consolidation.
Institutional Buying Fuels Record ETF Inflows
The most promising sign for XRP in 2026 isn’t coming from social media, but from Wall Street. Since launching in November, spot XRP ETFs have recorded a perfect streak with zero days of outflows.
These funds, led by firms like Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, have sucked up over $1.1 billion in net assets. This steady institutional buying has helped reduce the amount of XRP available on exchanges, which dropped by nearly 45% over the last year. While this hasn’t pushed the price to $5 yet, it creates a “supply squeeze” that could make the next price jump much more explosive if retail demand eventually returns.
Fading Network Activity Challenges The XRP Bull Case
While institutions are buying, the actual usage of the XRP Ledger tells a different story. In March 2025, the network saw a massive spike of over 600,000 daily active users. By the end of December, that number had cratered to just 38,500.
This massive drop in on-chain activity suggests that many retail traders have moved on to other networks. Technical analysts like Peter Brandt have warned that this lack of real-world demand could lead to a double top pattern, potentially sending the price below $1.00 before any real recovery begins.
For XRP to reach the $5-to-$10 range in 2026, the network needs more than just ETF buyers; it needs the “XRP Army” to return and start using the ledger for more than just speculation.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $1.8548.
