XRP (XRP-USD) is currently facing its most severe period of selling since late 2025, with prices slipping to approximately $1.60. This decline represents a 20% drop in just one week. On top of that, on-chain data indicates that the current price is now dangerously close to the $1.48 realized price, the average cost at which all XRP tokens in circulation were last moved. When the market price falls below this level, the average holder is in a loss position, a scenario that historically triggers panic selling and long-term periods of price suppression.
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New Buyers Face Financial Pressure
The recent influx of investors from the 2025 rally now finds themselves underwater. Analysis of holder behavior suggests that those who purchased XRP within the last 12 months are seeing their portfolios shrink as the asset fails to hold key psychological support levels. In previous cycles, specifically the 2022 bear market, a similar break below the realized price led to a cascading 50% drawdown.
If current buyers begin to capitulate, analysts warn that the price could slide toward the $1.00 mark as early as March.
Whale Flows Remain Net Negative
Large-scale investors, or whales, etfs-boom">appear to be adding to the downward pressure. Data from CryptoQuant shows that whale flows have remained net negative for over 90 days. Large holders are choosing to distribute their assets into the market rather than accumulate more at these levels. This distribution is happening alongside a massive exit of stablecoins from exchanges. Approximately $4 billion in stablecoins left trading platforms in January alone, following a staggering $9.6 billion outflow in late 2025. This exit reduces the available buying power needed to spark a price recovery.
Technical Indicators: Reversal or Breakdown?
Despite the bearish sentiment, some technical metrics offer a glimmer of hope for a recovery:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The two-week RSI is currently hovering near 38. Historically, this level has served as a launchpad for reversals, suggesting that selling pressure might be reaching an exhaustion point.
- Moving Averages: XRP has managed to hold above its 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.43. This level is being watched as the last line of defense for bullish investors.
- Q2 Forecasts: If the support band between $1.43 and $1.48 holds through February, some analysts predict a steady recovery starting in late March or April, potentially targeting a return to $2.30.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $1.6382.
