XRP (XRP-USD) is limping around the $1.90 zone after dropping 9% in a single day and nearly 19% across the past month, and the market is finally starting to show the kind of stress that usually precedes a bottom. The short-term holder NUPL reading has sunk to –0.30, its lowest level of the entire year. Historically, these deep negative NUPL prints have marked exhaustion phases. This is where traders get shaken out and price finds a floor.
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Earlier this year, similar NUPL dips triggered quick recoveries. April’s –0.13 reading sparked a bounce, and June’s –0.15 print did the same. This is why the current capitulation looks loud enough on paper for XRP to form a base.
But this time, the rebound is missing. Traders looking for an immediate reversal aren’t seeing the follow-through, and the reason is hiding in the spent-coins data. That’s where the real gap in this bottoming process becomes clear.
Spent-Coins Data Says the Washout Isn’t Finished
The spent coins age-band metric tracks how much XRP, from every age group, is moving while price drops. When spent coins spike, it signals true capitulation, not just weak-hand panic.
Earlier this month, that spike was undeniable. Between November 2 and November 5, as XRP fell from $2.54 to $2.15, spent coins surged from 20.32 million to 104.85 million, which is a massive 416% jump. This level of flushing helped solidify a short-term bottom on November 5.
Today’s structure is far softer. Since November 17, XRP has slipped from $2.27 to $1.96 while spent-coin activity has risen only 112%. This is nowhere near the full-scale capitulation seen earlier this month. In other words, the washout hasn’t completed its cycle. Until long-term and mid-term holders join the shakeout, XRP may still need to drift lower before finding a durable base.
This lack of full capitulation explains why XRP’s NUPL capitulation has not ignited a bounce. The market is clearing sellers, but not clearing them fast enough.
XRP Tests Critical Support While Bearish Risks Keep Building
The chart reinforces the same pressure, showing XRP hovering uncomfortably close to the $1.95 support level. Losing this level opens a clean drop toward $1.57, where the next major liquidity cluster sits. This zone could represent the final capitulation if spent-coins behavior catches up to the signal.
A technical storm is also forming. The 100-day EMA is sliding toward the 200-day EMA, and if it crosses below, a bearish crossover, sellers tend to accelerate. This kind of signal can hit a shaky market hard enough to set off a new cascade.
For XRP to show even the earliest signs of stabilization, the price must reclaim $2.08 and then $2.26. Without those levels, every bounce still looks corrective and every slip risks turning into a deeper slide.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $1.9193.
