XRP (XRP-USD) price has retreated from its 52-week highs and, at $2.95, now sits 19% below the $3.65 notched back in July. However, investors in the cross-border payments-focused token are looking toward next month and the prospect of a big catalyst that could potentially push the coin to fresh highs.
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The buzz revolves around the potential approval of new spot ETFs. So far, only Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) boast spot ETFs, but XRP looks set to be the next major crypto to get the SEC’s seal of approval.
According to various sources, chances of approval are high; Bloomberg currently reckons there’s a 95% chance these ETFs will start trading this year, and prediction markets seem to agree – Polymarket traders put the odds at 87% for approval later this year. Even better, we know exactly when a decision is expected: October 18. That’s when the SEC will begin reviewing applications for new spot XRP ETFs submitted by major firms like Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.
Investors have had to contend with the decision getting postponed. Back in August, the SEC delayed its verdict, pushing the deadline to October. In total, there are eight potential spot XRP ETFs that could be greenlit between October 18 and 25.
The outcome could mark a turning point for XRP. If approved, top investor Dominic Basulto believes the token “could be on the cusp of going fully mainstream.” Spot ETFs would open the door to major inflows from both retail and institutional investors, and J.P. Morgan estimates as much as $8 billion could pour in. Bitcoin’s own spot ETF approvals in January 2024 sparked a 160% surge, and Basulto suggests that if history is any guide, XRP could climb from under $3 to as high as $5.
However, Basulto, who’s ranked among the top 2% of stock pros on TipRanks, stresses that this is a best-case scenario. The caveat is that much of the optimism may already be baked into the price. Traders have been anticipating approval for more than eight months, meaning October 18 may not deliver the kind of surprise that sparks an immediate rally.
In a worst-case scenario, the buzz around the ETFs could trigger a classic “sell the news” event. “In other words,” says Basulto, “traders will bid up the price of XRP heading into October, and then immediately take profits as soon as the first SEC approval is signed, sealed, and delivered.”
The thing to remember here is that there are “no guarantees with XRP.” In 2025, the coin has often “overpromised and underdelivered.” Almost all of the gains came early in the year, fueled by pro-crypto sentiment around the new Trump administration.
Since then, Trump’s tariffs have come into play and broader U.S. economic weakness could limit any year-end rally. Still, XRP has shown it can surge quickly – between November 2024 and January 2025, it jumped an astonishing 580%, so the upside potential remains.
“As a result,” Basulto summed up, “I’ve already circled Oct. 18 on my calendar. If the price of XRP is going to start moving north again this year, that’s when it’s going to happen.” (To watch Basulto’s track record, click here)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.