Oil companies were under pressure in the first quarter of 2025 due to lower oil prices. After touching a quarterly high of $82 per barrel in January, crude oil prices fell through the end of Q1 due to concerns about an economic slowdown. Moreover, the tariffs announced by the Trump administration and the trade wars that followed also weighed on oil prices. While oil prices have recovered this week due to optimism around U.S.-China trade talks, macro uncertainties could continue to have an adverse impact. Meanwhile, major oil companies have recently announced their Q1 results. Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, we placed Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Chevron (CVX) against each other to find the most attractive oil stock, according to Wall Street analysts.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)
Energy major Exxon Mobil reported mixed first-quarter results, with EPS (earnings per share) surpassing expectations while revenue lagged estimates. The company’s Q1 EPS declined about 15% year-over-year to $1.76, due to lower oil prices in the quarter. However, EPS exceeded expectations, thanks to higher oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian basin and cost savings.
Meanwhile, Exxon rewarded shareholders with returns of $9.1 billion in Q1 2025, including $4.3 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in share repurchases. With a quarterly dividend of $0.99 per share, XOM stock offers a dividend yield of 3.7%.
Is Exxon Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Following the Q1 2025 results, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott reiterated a Buy rating on Exxon Mobil stock with a price target of $133. The analyst noted that the company’s Q1 EPS slightly exceeded expectations, but cash flow per share (CFPS) of $3.16 came in below the consensus estimate of $3.32 and Morgan Stanley’s forecast of $3.40, as strong results in the Products segments were offset by higher corporate and financing expenses.
The 5-star analyst noted that XOM’s total production of 4.551 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) also missed the consensus expectation by 1%. Meanwhile, Exxon’s Q1 capex was nearly 12% below the forecast, reflecting the timing of planned 2025 spending, with no change to full-year capex guidance. McDermott remains bullish on XOM stock, as he believes that the company’s attractive growth is on track. The analyst noted that in the Q4 earnings call, the company stated that it plans to deliver 10 key growth projects across its portfolio in 2025.
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Exxon Mobil stock based on eight Buys and four Holds. The average XOM stock price target of $124.33 implies about 17.2% upside potential. Exxon Mobil stock is flat on a year-to-date basis.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)
Oil and gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2025, as higher production helped offset lower oil prices. The company’s Q1 production increased by 487,000 boepd year-over-year to 2.38 million boepd, supported by Marathon Oil’s acquisition.
ConocoPhillips reduced its full-year capital expenditure guidance by $450 million to $12.3 billion-$12.6 billion and also lowered the operating cost guidance. However, the company said that this will have no impact on its production levels.
The company distributed $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $1.5 billion in share repurchases and $1.0 billion in dividends. ConocoPhillips announced a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share for the second quarter. COP stock offers a dividend yield of 3.6%.
What Is the Target Price for COP Stock?
Following the Q1 results, TD Cowen analyst David Deckelbaum reiterated a Buy rating on ConocoPhillips stock with a price target of $120. The analyst noted that the company exceeded Q1 production estimates by 1%, driven by a strong international beat of 3%. He also noted that Q1 EBITDAX (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortization, and exploration) of about $7.42 billion surpassed the expectations by 4%, driven by better pricing and lower unit costs, reflecting the realization of synergies from the Marathon Oil integration.
Deckelbaum added that ConocoPhillips’ 2025 guidance updates were a bright spot in the Q1 print and showcased the company’s continued efficiency gains as it maintained its original 2.34-2.38 million boepd production guidance despite lowering the capex guidance.
Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on ConocoPhillips stock based on 16 Buys and two Holds. The average COP stock price target of $119.28 implies 34.3% upside potential. COP stock is down about 9% year to date.
Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
Energy giant Chevron reported Q1 EPS of $2.18, which surpassed analysts’ estimate of $2.16 but reflected a 26% year-over-year fall due to lower oil prices and a decline in margins on refined product sales. The company’s first-quarter production remained flat at 3.35 million boepd.
Chevron returned $6.9 billion to shareholders during the first quarter, including share repurchases of $3.9 billion and dividends of $3.0 billion. At a quarterly dividend of $1.71 per share, CVX stock offers a dividend yield of 4.9%.
However, the company is slowing the pace of its share buybacks amid a tough macro backdrop and falling oil prices. Chevron said it plans to repurchase $2.5 billion to $3 billion of its stock in Q2 2025. However, it maintained the full-year buyback guidance in the range of $10 billion to $20 billion.
Is CVX a Good Stock to Buy?
Argus analyst Bill Selesky lowered his price target for Chevron stock to $169 from $211 and reiterated a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst noted the decline in the company’s Q1 earnings, which reflected lower commodity price realizations, lower margins on refined product sales, and the absence of favorable tax items recorded in the prior year.
He also pointed out that the pending acquisition of Hess by Chevron is facing delays due to an arbitration dispute with Exxon Mobil and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) over Hess’ 30% stake in Guyana’s Stabroek oil block.
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Chevron stock based on 10 Buys, five Holds, and two Sells. The average CVX stock price target of $160.31 implies 17% upside potential. Chevron stock is down about 4% so far in 2025.
Conclusion
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic on Exxon Mobil and Chevron stocks but highly bullish on ConocoPhillips stock. Analysts see higher upside potential in COP stock than in the other two oil stocks. Despite concerns about lower oil prices due to weak demand amid macro challenges, Wall Street is bullish on ConocoPhillips stock due to its strong fundamentals, efficiency, solid portfolio, and attractive shareholder returns.