Tesla’s (TSLA) stock remains a hot topic among investors, with analysts divided in their opinions. Most recently, Wolfe Research highlighted that Tesla’s investment appeal is shifting more toward its advancements in AI and autonomous driving technology, even as the core automotive business grapples with short-term headwinds. Meanwhile, Wolfe analyst Emmanuel Rosner maintained a Hold rating on the stock.
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AI and Autonomy Trends Strengthen
Wolfe Research points to several upcoming catalysts tied to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi initiatives. These include the expansion of its autonomous vehicle services into key U.S. markets such as San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida.
The catalysts also include expected regulatory progress in China and Europe, the rollout of hands-free capability in select U.S. regions, and the scaled production of the Optimus robot, targeted for 2026.
Wolfe Flags Short-Term Risks for TSLA Stock
Despite the long-term AI-driven narrative, Wolfe suggests that Wall Street’s near-term estimates for Tesla may be overly optimistic, especially for 2025 and 2026. The firm expects free cash flow to remain constrained.
Notably, the firm’s updated earnings forecasts of $1.62 and $1.67 per share for 2025 and 2026 fall well below Wall Street’s consensus of $1.76 and $2.53. It also flagged a “challenging” outlook over the next 18 months, especially as demand for the Model 3 and Model Y could weaken when U.S. clean vehicle tax credits phase out in late 2025.
However, it notes that Tesla’s growing energy segment could play a crucial role in offsetting some of the pressure.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy Now?
On Wall Street, analysts have maintained a neutral stance on Tesla stock. According to TipRanks, TSLA stock has received a Hold consensus rating, with 14 Buys, 14 Holds, and eight Sells assigned in the last three months. The average Tesla stock price target is $310.84, suggesting a potential downside of 2% from the current level.
