Nvidia (NVDA) will report its fiscal Q2 2026 results on Wednesday after the market closes, and expectations are sky high. Wall Street forecasts revenue of about $45.9 billion, up 53% from last year, while earnings per share are projected to be near $1.00. Investors will be watching for both headline numbers and forward guidance, as the stock remains central to the artificial intelligence trade.
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However, the mood in the market is cautious. Nvidia shares have been volatile this week, sliding 3.5% last Tuesday after comments from OpenAI’s CEO raised concerns about an AI bubble. Adding to pressure, an MIT report suggested that most companies investing in generative AI have yet to see returns. That has weighed on tech broadly, with the Nasdaq down more than 7% in recent sessions.
Nvidia Balances Supply Strains and Export Rules
At the same time, Nvidia is working through its own operational challenges. The company’s new Blackwell-based GPUs have faced production delays tied to partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), and some analysts warn that full-scale shipments may not land until later next year. These supply constraints could influence the company’s ability to meet rising demand.
Geopolitical issues are also in play. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed last week that Nvidia is in talks with the Trump administration about a next-generation AI chip for the Chinese market. The proposed B30A chip would deliver roughly half the computing power of the flagship B300 to comply with export rules. This comes as the company and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) face a 15% revenue-sharing requirement on advanced chip sales to China, adding another layer of complexity to growth plans.
Is Nvidia Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Despite these hurdles, analysts remain broadly positive. Out of 39 ratings, 35 analysts rate NVDA shares a Buy, culminating in a Strong Buy consensus. The average NVDA stock price target stands at $198.57, about 11.5% above the current price of $177.99.
Still, with high expectations and sensitive headlines, the upcoming earnings call will be pivotal. Investors want proof that Nvidia can sustain growth while managing supply, regulation, and a market debating whether AI is a boom or a bubble.