“The road is long,” sang The Hollies. For Archer Aviation (ACHR), the runway may be even longer. Between bureaucracy and FAA certifications, pilot training, investor pressure, and aircraft testing, the company continues to push toward its goal of launching commercial electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) flights in 2025.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
Archer Aviation is making progress, closing deals, expanding partnerships, and building infrastructure. However, the plan to launch commercial flights in 2025 is still a stretch. Also, not all investors and analysts are aligned on the timeline. So, what are the real chances of a commercial flight this year?
FAA in No Rush
Archer Aviation has said it plans to begin air taxi service by the end of 2025. Its first commercial flights are expected to take place outside the U.S., likely in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In Abu Dhabi, the company completed flight tests and secured approvals for vertiport infrastructure. The first Midnight aircraft is set to arrive in the region later this year.
In the U.S., Archer Aviation has made progress on pilot readiness. Its in-house training program received FAA Part 141 certification in February 2025. It already holds Part 135 and Part 145 certificates for operations and maintenance. These authorizations are required before passenger flights can begin. However, the company still needs full type certification for its aircraft. Without it, commercial flights in the U.S. cannot proceed. According to Archer Aviation, about 75% of the certification process is complete.
FAA officials have kept expectations broad. In July 2025, the agency’s acting administrator said certified aircraft may begin flying “before the end of 2028.” That statement did not rule out a 2025 launch, but it signaled caution. Archer Aviation and other eVTOL developers are working within a new FAA framework for powered-lift aircraft, which is still evolving.
A separate hurdle is agency staffing. Earlier this year, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) implemented federal cuts that resulted in FAA layoffs. That slowdown has affected timelines for all new aircraft types. Given these constraints, Archer Aviation has made the UAE its lead market. The country’s aviation regulator has supported the program and attended test flights. The company is working with Abu Dhabi Aviation as its operating partner. If commercial flights begin in 2025, they are expected to happen in the Middle East.
Capital, Partners, and Pressure
Financially, Archer Aviation is well-positioned. The company raised $850 million in July 2025, bringing its total liquidity to about $1 billion. The raise was aimed at funding final development, though it led to a 15% drop in the share price on the day of the announcement. The company also has more than $6 billion in potential aircraft orders. This includes a conditional purchase agreement with United Airlines (UAL) for over 100 Midnight aircraft, and a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for logistics testing.
Street analysts remain split. H.C. Wainwright’s Amit Dayal has issued a positive rating and price target, based on a 2025 launch assumption. Other analysts are modeling revenue beginning in 2026 instead.
In May 2025, short-seller Culper Research accused Archer Aviation of overstating progress on manufacturing and readiness. Archer rejected the claims. The report, however, reignited concerns about timelines and disclosure. On the positive side, Archer Aviation is set to serve as the official air taxi partner for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. That target implies commercial readiness by 2027, giving investors a longer horizon to assess progress.
Upside and Risk Factors
Some signs point to upside. Test flights have occurred in varied environments, including extreme heat in the UAE. The White House has also introduced a federal pilot program to support eVTOL integration. Archer Aviation is participating in the initiative.
There are risks as well. Certification delays, supply chain issues, and flight test problems could push timelines. Pilot readiness is another factor. Although the company’s training academy is certified, its first cohort of Midnight pilots is still in development. Simulation systems are also undergoing review.
Conclusion
Based on current conditions, Archer Aviation is unlikely to begin commercial eVTOL service in the U.S. by the end of 2025. FAA certification appears more likely to arrive in 2026. There is, however, a moderate chance the company could launch limited commercial flights in the UAE later this year. Even a limited start in 2025 would represent a milestone for Archer Aviation. However, if there are any delays in getting certified or starting flights, the company’s value could take a hit, and analysts might change their outlook.
So, maybe where Archer is going, it doesn’t need roads, but it certainly needs FAA certifications.
Is Archer Aviation Stock a Good Buy?
Despite the stock’s speculative nature, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the company. Based on six recent ratings, Archer Aviation boasts a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average 12-month price target of $11.75. This implies a 15.31% upside from the current price.
