Pfizer (PFE) may finally be turning the corner on its post-pandemic revenue challenges. The company recently reported breakthrough survival data in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) from the Phase 3 EV-303/KEYNOTE-905 trial—an encouraging validation of its oncology investments.
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That said, Pfizer still faces a difficult road ahead, with lingering post-pandemic uncertainty and looming patent expirations on major blockbusters like ELIQUIS and IBRANCE. Even so, the promising bladder cancer results, coupled with the stock’s conservative valuation, attractive dividend yield, and approach toward a key resistance level, create an appealing setup. For these reasons, I remain cautiously Bullish as we near the three-quarter mark for the year.
Facing a Massive Revenue Cliff
Pfizer has become a prime example of the post-pandemic hangover in the stock market—similar to how Zoom (ZM), once synonymous with “meetings,” has yet to regain its former glory. Pfizer’s windfall came through its COVID products, COMIRNATY and PAXLOVID, which generated more than $55 billion in 2022. But with demand for both collapsing, the company now faces a massive revenue gap and an urgent question about its next growth engine.
Adding to the pressure, Pfizer is staring down patent expirations on blockbuster drugs like ELIQUIS, IBRANCE, and XTANDI, putting billions in annual sales at risk.
Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. Pfizer remains profitable and continues to channel significant resources into R&D—investments aimed at fueling the next wave of blockbuster therapies.
Like many of its peers, Pfizer has turned to acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline—with the $43 billion Seagen deal standing out as its most significant recent bet on oncology.
A Pivotal Win Validates a Pricey Bet
Which brings us to the present. Pfizer recently unveiled Phase 3 results for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin), its antibody-drug conjugate acquired through Seagen, in combination with Merck’s (MRK) KEYTRUDA. The regimen achieved the trial’s primary endpoints, showing statistically significant improvements in both event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who were ineligible for cisplatin.
Cisplatin remains a standard first-line therapy in MIBC, but its toxicity restricts use to patients who meet strict eligibility criteria. Roughly half of all MIBC patients do not qualify, leaving them with limited treatment options.
With these results, PADCEV—Pfizer’s prized Seagen asset—paired with KEYTRUDA is now positioned to emerge as a first-line therapy for thousands of cisplatin-ineligible MIBC patients.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
In Pfizer’s latest earnings report, the Oncology segment stood out, with sales climbing 11% to $4.39 billion. PADCEV, already FDA-approved for urothelial cancer, delivered powerful momentum—up 38% year-over-year to $542 million. This kind of growth is exactly what investors want to see as Pfizer leans deeper into oncology.
A 38% surge ahead of a potential label expansion from the new MIBC data underscores PADCEV’s blockbuster potential. On the flip side, an 8% YoY decline in IBRANCE sales (down to $1.05 billion) highlights why the MIBC data is so critical to Pfizer’s future growth trajectory.
PFE Stock Stands at a Technical Crossroads
From a technical perspective, Pfizer’s stock is nearing its 50-day moving average—a level that has consistently acted as resistance since the pandemic.
If PFE can break above its 50-day moving average and establish support, the stock could be setting up for brighter days ahead—particularly if fundamentals such as trial data and earnings continue to improve.
In the meantime, investors still have reasons to stay interested: a hefty 6.8% dividend yield and a stock trading at a conservative valuation. At just 13.4x earnings—nearly a 50% discount to the Health Care sector average—much of the downside risk already appears baked into the price.
Don’t Ignore the Headwinds
On the other hand, several headwinds could weigh on Pfizer’s stock. Chief among them is the looming patent cliff between 2026 and 2028, which will demand outsized growth from its newer portfolio to offset.
In addition, while Pfizer’s Oncology segment has shown promising momentum, it operates in a fiercely competitive landscape with heavyweight rivals like Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Roche (RHHBY). Emerging next-generation therapies could also challenge the PADCEV/KEYTRUDA combo in MIBC, underscoring the risks ahead.
Is Pfizer a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
On Wall Street, PFE earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on six Buy, 12 Hold, and zero Sell ratings in the past three months. PFE’s average stock price target of $28.50 implies an upside potential of 13.7% over the next twelve months.
Pfizer’s Oncology Bet Needs Time to Prosper
In conclusion, Pfizer’s oncology strategy is starting to deliver results at a pivotal moment. For the past two years, the company has been defined by cost-cutting and strategic repositioning amid a steep post-COVID revenue drop and looming patent cliffs.
Now, the breakthrough survival data from the PADCEV/KEYTRUDA combo in bladder cancer provides meaningful validation of its turnaround efforts. Expanding PADCEV into indications like MIBC is essential to offset expected losses from blockbusters such as ELIQUIS and IBRANCE.
Most importantly, Pfizer is executing on its oncology roadmap—a cornerstone for future growth. This progress has the potential to rekindle broader investor interest beyond its “value” and “dividend” profile, leaving me cautiously bullish despite the risks.