Why GLP-1 Weight-Loss Pills Might Be Great News for Airlines

Wall Street has labeled the airline industry as a surprising winner from the growing use of weight-loss drugs. More specifically, with the first GLP-1 obesity pill from drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) now on the market, and another from rival Eli Lilly (LLY) expected soon, analysts at investment firm Jefferies (JEF) say that wider use could quietly reduce how much airlines spend on fuel, which is their biggest cost. Since pills are easier to take than injections, more people are likely to try these treatments, which could lead to lighter average passengers over time.

Because fuel is such a large expense, even small changes in weight can make a difference. In fact, Jefferies estimates that a 10% drop in average passenger weight could cut total aircraft weight by about 2%, which would lower fuel costs by up to 1.5% and boost airline earnings by as much as 4%. Jefferies illustrated this by using a Boeing 737 MAX 8 as an example. Interestingly, the plane weighs about 99,000 pounds empty and can carry around 46,000 pounds of fuel and 36,000 pounds of passengers, bags, and cargo.

In a typical setup with 178 passengers averaging 180 pounds each, people alone account for roughly 32,000 pounds. If those passengers were 10% lighter, that would remove more than 3,000 pounds from the plane, cutting about 2% of its total takeoff weight and saving fuel over thousands of flights. That impact could be meaningful for major U.S. carriers like American Airlines (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV), which together are expected to spend nearly $39 billion on fuel in 2026.

Which Airline Stock Is the Better Buy?

Turning to Wall Street, out of the airline stocks mentioned above, analysts think that UAL stock has the most room to run. In fact, UAL’s average price target of $139.40 per share implies more than 25% upside potential.

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