Space firm Firefly Aerospace (FLY) jumped higher on Monday after being added to the Russell 2000 Index (IWM), one of 18 new companies to join. As a result, it was also included in the Russell 3000 Index (IWV), which tracks the performance of the U.S. stock market more broadly. Both indices are maintained by FTSE Russell, which is a global firm that creates tools in order to measure how different areas of the financial markets are performing, often based on market capitalization.
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Interestingly, Firefly, which went public on August 4, debuted on the Nasdaq (NDAQ) at $45 per share. In its first week, it surged as high as $73.80 but has since cooled off, dropping to $16 by November. It is also worth noting that Firefly makes most of its money by launching small-to-medium payloads into low Earth orbit using its Alpha rocket, which costs about $15 million per mission. Notably, the firm is targeting a unique segment of the market, where payloads are too big for small rockets but too small to justify using larger, more expensive ones.
Nevertheless, despite the index inclusion, analysts remain cautious. For example, Morgan Stanley’s Kristine Liwag pointed out that Firefly still has to prove itself operationally, especially when compared to more experienced competitors like Rocket Lab (RKLB), which has completed 70 launches versus Firefly’s two. Therefore, due to Firefly’s limited track record and recent issues with the Alpha rocket, the firm is expected to trade at a lower valuation that’s closer to space infrastructure and exploration companies, which typically trade at around 2–2.5x EV/2027 sales.
Is FLY Stock a Good Buy?
Overall, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FLY stock based on four Buys, three Holds, and zero Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average FLY price target of $34.83 per share implies 23.5% upside potential.
