AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares went through a turbulent trading session on Monday, plunging as much as 14% before paring losses to finish down about 4%. The decline came after reports that SpaceX struck a $17 billion spectrum deal with EchoStar, a move seen as a setback for AST since it strengthens SpaceX’s direct-to-cell ambitions and raises concerns about tougher competition in the satellite-to-smartphone market.
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The drop, however, should be looked at in wider context; since last May, ASTS shares are up by almost 1,700%, so investors have done pretty well here, especially considering the company remains in the very early stages of revenue generation.
ASTS is developing a low-Earth-orbit satellite network designed to bring broadband service to remote areas, connecting directly to standard smartphones without modification. While existing cell networks reach about 90% of the global population, they only cover around 15% of the planet’s surface. In 2026, ASTs plans to fill in many of these coverage gaps with a fleet of 45 to 60 “BlueBird” satellites – massive spacecraft measuring roughly 2,400 square feet, making them the largest communications satellites ever launched. The company has agreements with 50 mobile carriers representing close to 3 billion subscribers, including major names such as AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, T-Mobile, and Bell Canada. ASTS intends to operate under a revenue-sharing model with these partners and is also working on eight development contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense.
With SpaceX now valued near $400 billion – driven heavily by its Starlink satellite unit – investors have been looking for the “next big thing” in satellite communications. ASTS is positioning itself as exactly that, and so far, the market has shown it’s willing to give the company plenty of runway.
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma believes the company has a $2.3 billion revenue opportunity across commercial and defense markets, and the shares could surge even higher if it can monetize its 50 carrier partnerships and turn prototype defense contracts into full-scale programs.
However, doing that is not without its challenges and this is why DiPalma advocates a cautious stance.
“In our view, there are risks associated with competition, the real size of the TAM, funding, the high capital intensity of satellite networks, and execution,” the analyst explained.
Accordingly, DiPalma rates ASTS shares as Market Perform (i.e., Neutral) with no fixed price target in mind. (To watch DiPalma’s track record, click here)
Scotiabank’s Andres Coello, an analyst ranked amongst the top 1% of Street stock experts, shares a similarly cautious outlook. While Coello acknowledges that the company has reaffirmed a December 2025 soft U.S. launch and a full rollout by mid-2026, he sees the biggest risk in monetization. Specifically, T-Mobile’s decision to bundle satellite service into premium plans makes it difficult to gauge how many paying subscribers ASTS will actually secure. Without clear reporting, there’s a danger that subscriber numbers could disappoint, undermining investor confidence. Coello warns that while partnerships with AT&T and Verizon may ultimately help ASTS build a base of paying users, those results won’t be visible until late 2026. Therefore, says Coello, “uncertainty over monetization model and global spectrum ambitions have turned us cautious on ASTS.”
As such, Coello also has a Sector Perform (i.e., Neutral) rating on ASTS shares, backed by a $42.90 price target. (To watch Coello’s track record, click here)
Despite these skeptical takes, the broader Street leans more optimistic. Out of 7 recent ratings, 4 are Buys versus 3 Holds, giving ASTS a Moderate Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $55.82, suggesting shares could climb ~37% over the coming year. (See ASTS stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.