The race to buy entertainment giant Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is quite possibly more entertaining than anything any of the studios involved has put out in months. And right now, Polymarket has odds on the favorite to win. Is it Netflix (NFLX)? Is it Paramount Skydance (PSKY)? Only time will ultimately tell, but Polymarket has a winner projected. Warner shareholders are largely holding their collective breath, as shares dipped fractionally in the closing minutes of Thursday’s trading.
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The odds break down like so: currently, Paramount is the frontrunner, as 49% of bettors believe that Paramount will come out ahead. Current bets on Paramount to win total $7,507. While fewer bettors believe that Netflix will come out ahead—only 36% of bettors have money down on that angle—they are willing to put significantly more money where their mouths are, collectively. There are $10,948 worth of bets on Netflix to win.
Meanwhile, amazingly, less than 1% of bets are for Comcast (CMCSA) to come back from out of nowhere to step in and buy out Warner. That move is remarkably unlikely, as Comcast has already announced it is out of the running. However, a little under 20% of bettors are putting their money on no one to win and Warner to remain unpurchased.
Canada Gets Concerned
Concerns about the Warner deal are mounting, with theaters pretty unnerved and government agencies raising eyebrows as well. One more sector weighed in, and it might surprise you. The Canadian film industry is concerned about the fate of its own operations if Warner gets sold in either direction.
Canadian producers reported that they were already having a hard time getting anyone at Warner to take their calls after merging with Discovery. Thus, they believe that another merger would make access even harder to arrange. In the end, noted David Cronenberg’s long-time producer, Martin Katz, “If there are fewer people to come to, that makes it more difficult to make a sale.”
Is WBD Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on WBD stock based on eight Buys and 12 Holds assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 136.43% rally in its share price over the past year, the average WBD price target of $22.65 per share implies 23.17% downside risk.
