Today is the day fans and casual observers alike have been waiting for: the release of the Q2 2025 Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings report. While the numbers are obviously important, that’s not all that an eager market is looking forward to understanding.
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Tesla is not your ordinary company, nor is TSLA your standard stock. Though EV sales were way down in Q1 2025, tariff uncertainty reigned, and CEO Elon Musk’s popularity was dipping, TSLA emerged in prime position following its last earnings report at the end of April.
The reason was pretty straightforward: Musk shared that he would be spending more time on his business ventures (and cutting back on his government role). Investors celebrated, and TSLA has gained almost 40% in value in the ensuing months.
Tesla has already published EV sales for Q2, which came in at 384,122 – a year-over-year decline of 13.5%. However, investors will be eager to hear updates from Musk regarding Tesla’s ambitious agenda going forward, including future robotaxi rollouts, developments with Optimus robots, and the company’s growing energy business, among other ventures.
That’s not enough for one top investor known by the pseudonym KM Capital, however, who is no longer feeling so bullish.
“Tesla faces declining revenue and EPS, losing market share to competitors like BYD, and domestic headwinds from high interest rates,” declares the 5-star investor, who is among the top 2% of TipRanks’ stock pros.
The company’s EV deliver numbers are a particular point of concern for KM, especially since Tesla’s biggest competitor – BYD – has been experiencing rapid growth. This isn’t happening just in China either, as the Chinese company has been expanding its presence in Europe.
“The fact that Tesla’s revenue and the industry are moving in opposite directions clearly indicates that Tesla is losing its global market share,” adds KM.
Tesla’s prospects in the U.S. have also taken a hit, notes KM, as the Fed’s strict monetary policy is harming domestic sales as elevated interest rates make it harder for consumers to purchase “high-ticket items” such as EVs.
Of course, there is always the potential that Musk could pull a rabbit out of his hat on this evening’s earnings call, inspiring the market with descriptions of the company’s various businesses of the future. That just isn’t enough to sway KM Capital this time.
“While Tesla’s Energy and future businesses offer upside, current risks in the core EV segment justify a more cautious stance for now,” sums up the investor, who is downgrading TSLA to a Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. (To watch KM Capital’s track record, click here)
While opinions vary on Wall Street, overall that seems to be the general view as well. With 13 Buys, 13 Holds, and 8 Sells, TSLA has a consensus Hold rating. Its 12-month average price target of $298.93 has a downside of ~9%. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.