UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the largest healthcare provider, is now one of the worst-hit stocks of 2025. Down 44% year-to-date, UNH stock was dragged down by rising costs in its Medicare Advantage business, a surprise CEO exit, and intensifying federal scrutiny into its billing practices. Currently, investors are looking for updates on the company’s progress on the legal and financial front at the Q2 earnings, due July 29.
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What Went Wrong?
The selloff in UNH stock began in April when UnitedHealth missed earnings and slashed its full-year guidance. This was followed by the resignation of CEO Andrew Witty in May.
Also, last week, the company confirmed it is under both criminal and civil investigations by the Department of Justice. The probe centers on alleged overbilling in its Medicare Advantage program, specifically whether patient diagnoses were inflated to boost government reimbursements.
Analysts Are Not That Bearish
Despite the turmoil, Wall Street sentiment is mixed but not entirely bearish. Bernstein even named UNH a “Top Pick,” citing its discounted valuation and long-term earnings potential. Further, the firm expects a doubling of EPS by 2029, driven by sector recovery and company-specific margin recovery.
Others are more cautious. Wells Fargo and Truist Financial recently lowered their price targets, citing weak investor sentiment and concerns around Optum Health, UnitedHealth’s services arm.
All Eyes Are on UNH’s Q2 Results
Currently, analysts anticipate that Q2 earnings will fall to $4.48 from $6.80 a year ago. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to grow 12.8% to $111.50 billion.
The bottom-line drop reflects higher-than-expected medical costs, especially in Medicare Advantage, which have hurt the company’s margins.
More than the Q2 numbers, investors are focused on CEO Stephen Hemsley offering a roadmap for recovery, including updated 2025 guidance and early signals for 2026. A full-year EPS outlook of below $18 could result in investors losing more confidence and trigger further selling.
Is UNH a Good Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, UNH stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 18 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. At $348.12, the average UnitedHealth stock price target implies a 24.11% upside potential.
