Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), the world’s most valuable healthcare firm, is solidifying its leadership in the fast-growing obesity treatment market. Best known for its blockbuster drug Mounjaro/Zepbound, the company is advancing additional weight loss therapies through clinical trials and has recently unveiled promising data for two new treatments.
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While the stock has experienced some volatility over the past year, Eli Lilly’s market leadership and continued innovation in obesity care support a bullish long-term outlook, given the substantial ~140% gain since 2022.
In fact, after recovering from a slow start to 2025, LLY stock is within striking distance of its all-time high of $960 per share. According to Wall Street analysts, the stock is on track to set a new record high and potentially reach the psychologically significant milestone of $1,000 per share within 12 months.
Zepbound’s Blockbuster Growth
Eli Lilly has seen significant growth in recent years, primarily driven by the success of its GLP-1/GIP obesity drug, Zepbound. Approved for obesity in November 2023, Zepbound still managed to generate nearly $5 billion in revenue in 2024, a remarkable performance given strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy, which entered the market earlier.
In fact, LLY registered 36% growth in its revenues last quarter while the sector average was just 6.7%. NVO posted revenue growth of 24.1%. LLY’s revenue sources are pretty evenly split, as shown by TipRank’s data.
Eli Lilly has cited superior weight loss outcomes for Zepbound, likely due to its dual agonism, targeting two gut hormones that enhance weight loss efficacy. However, both Zepbound and Wegovy have challenges. They require weekly injections, which may deter some patients, and face supply chain constraints tied to complex manufacturing and cold storage.
These limitations have increased interest in oral alternatives, which could broaden access and ease logistical hurdles, prompting multiple players, including Lilly, to invest in developing pill-based therapies.
Oral Therapies Expand the Market
Eli Lilly’s most advanced oral obesity candidate, orforglipron, recently became the first small-molecule GLP-1 agonist to complete a Phase 3 trial. In April, results from the ACHIEVE-1 study showed that, among obese adults with diabetes, orforglipron lowered hemoglobin A1C by up to 1.6% and reduced body weight by 7.9% over 40 weeks.
Importantly, the treatment’s efficacy hadn’t yet plateaued, suggesting further benefits with continued use. Its safety profile was consistent with other GLP-1 drugs, including common gastrointestinal side effects. Orforglipron could hit the market as soon as next year, with some analysts projecting peak annual sales of up to $8 billion.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk is preparing to launch oral semaglutide, the pill form of the active ingredient in Wegovy. However, Lilly’s orforglipron may hold a competitive edge—it’s a small molecule, meaning it doesn’t require food or water restrictions like semaglutide, potentially offering greater convenience and patient adherence.
New Targets Emerge Beyond GLP-1/GIP
Drug developers are increasingly exploring gut hormones beyond GLP-1 and GIP, with amylin receptor agonism emerging as a promising area. In June, Eli Lilly unveiled encouraging early data for its investigational amylin analogue, eloralintide, showing over 11% body weight loss in some patients within just three months, and notably, with minimal gastrointestinal side effects.
Expanding into new hormonal pathways like amylin could help address the needs of patients who don’t respond optimally to current GLP-1/GIP therapies, potentially broadening the reach of obesity treatment options.
Is Eli Lilly a Good Stock to Buy?
On Wall Street, LLY earns a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buy, two Hold, and one Sell ratings in the past three months. LLY’s average price target of $999.57 implies a 31% upside potential over the next twelve months.
Recently, Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger issued a Buy rating on LLY. He pointed to the company’s recent acquisition of Verve Therapeutics, a biotechnology company developing gene therapies for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, as an expansion of Eli Lilly’s focus on its cardiometabolic research and development efforts. So, it’s not just obesity Eli Lilly is targeting.
Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn reiterated a Buy rating on LLY with a hefty price target of $1,133. Flynn was encouraged by Eli Lilly’s progress in expanding market access for Zepbound, which is often uncovered by insurance and results in large out-of-pocket expenses for patients. Notably, Cigna, a large healthcare insurer, announced a “new benefit option capping patient copays at $200 per month on both Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy and maintaining its less exclusionary approach.”
Zepbound Fuels LLY’s Growth as Valuation Risks Linger
Eli Lilly’s Zepbound is doing more than generating blockbuster revenue—it’s also fueling the company’s long-term growth strategy. The cash flow from Zepbound is being reinvested into promising areas like oral obesity therapy orforglipron and strategic moves such as the acquisition of Verve.
Since no single drug can drive growth indefinitely, Zepbound is playing a pivotal role in both sustaining current performance and funding the next wave of innovation. Going forward, a key focus will be on expanding access to Zepbound and advancing oral therapies to broaden the addressable market for obesity. Encouragingly, Lilly appears to be making steady progress, even amid recent stock volatility.
That said, there are notable risks. Zepbound accounts for roughly 18% of Eli Lilly’s revenue, making the company vulnerable to safety concerns or increased competition. While orforglipron has a convenience advantage, it will face tough competition from oral semaglutide and a crowded pipeline of next-generation weight loss therapies. Additionally, LLY trades at a high P/E ratio of 65.5, indicating that much of its expected growth may already be factored into its stock price.
All in all, Zepbound’s impressive growth and Eli Lilly’s weight loss pipeline are factors that investors can rely on, boding well for long-term growth and meriting a bullish outlook, despite some risks.