Novavax Soars as Traders Bet Big on Vaccine Future

Novavax ( (NVAX) ) has risen by 14.48%. Read on to learn why.

Novavax shares climbed 14.48% over the past week as traders and investors responded to a surge in bullish options activity and growing interest in the company’s vaccine adjuvant technology. Options desks flagged heavy call buying, with call volume running roughly three times normal levels and implied volatility jumping, a pattern that often signals speculative positioning ahead of a potential catalyst. The low put/call ratio underscored a strong short-term bullish bias, even as the company heads toward its next earnings report on February 26.

Behind the move, Wall Street is sharply divided on Novavax’s long‑term prospects. On the positive side, several analysts, including those at BTIG, H.C. Wainwright and Cantor Fitzgerald, reiterated Buy ratings and set price targets well above recent trading levels. They argue that Novavax’s Matrix‑M adjuvant platform is gaining meaningful validation through a new licensing deal with Pfizer and an existing partnership with Sanofi. These analysts see the capital‑light licensing model, potential milestone payments, and future royalty streams as creating multiple shots at long‑term value, particularly in vaccine markets like RSV, shingles and pneumococcal disease.

However, not everyone is convinced, which adds a speculative edge to the recent rally. Bank of America and Citi both maintain Sell ratings with single‑digit price targets, citing execution risks, uncertainty over the timing of cash flows from licensing deals, and a tougher outlook for the COVID-19 vaccine market beyond 2026. Novavax is still loss‑making, with revenue declining year‑over‑year and a widening net loss, and the Street’s consensus sits at a cautious Hold with an average target of about $10. Against this backdrop of contrasting views and elevated options activity, last week’s 14.48% gain looks driven more by traders betting on future catalysts than by a clear fundamental turnaround.